PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Sun, 14 Sept 2025, 13:30 UTCFull timeMillerntor-StadionFull-time recap
2–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricFC St. PauliFC Augsburg
Shots13 shots/match▲10 shots/match
Shots on target7 shots/match▲5 shots/match
Possession57%43%
Corners3 corners/match1 corners/match
Fouls10 fouls/match12 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match▲4 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: FC Augsburg's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. A second useful context is: Each team's season fouls average is above the competition baseline. Limitation: At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.

FC Augsburg show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

FC Augsburg's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

13.7 shots/match▲ShotsFC St. Pauli · FC Augsburg11.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricFC St. PauliFC AugsburgBaseline
Shots13.7 shots/match11.3 shots/match13.3 shots/match
Shots against7.67 shots/match16.3 shots/match12.8 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Both teams have elevated fouls records

weak

Each team's season fouls average is above the competition baseline.

14 fouls/match▲FoulsFC St. Pauli · FC Augsburg14.7 fouls/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricFC St. PauliFC AugsburgBaseline
Fouls14 fouls/match14.7 fouls/match11.3 fouls/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

The teams have contrasting possession records

weak

FC St. Pauli have recorded the higher season possession share.

53.3%▲PossessionFC St. Pauli · FC Augsburg41.7%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 11.7 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricFC St. PauliFC AugsburgBaseline
Possession53.3%41.7%51.7%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

FC St. Pauli favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · FC Augsburg in 0 · 14 too close

2.33 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 3/32 goals/match
1.33 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 3/32 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
13.7 shots/matchShotsseason · 3/311.3 shots/match
7.67 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 3/316.3 shots/match
6.67 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 3/34.33 shots/match
4.67 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 3/37 shots/match
53.3%Possessionseason · 3/341.7%
4.33 corners/matchCornersseason · 3/34.33 corners/match
1.67 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 3/34.33 corners/match
2 cards/matchCardsseason · 3/34 cards/match
14 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 3/314.7 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
33%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 3/30%
100%Scoring frequencyseason · 3/3100%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

FC St. Pauli63.9
FC Augsburg19.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

FC St. Pauli69.4
FC Augsburg36.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

FC St. Pauli74.1
FC Augsburg20.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

FC St. Pauli47.2
FC Augsburg58.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

FC St. Pauli52.8
FC Augsburg97.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

FC St. Pauli38.9
FC Augsburg38.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

FC St. Pauli67.3
FC Augsburg49.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

3 / 3 matches
2.33 goals/match▲Goals scored3/32 goals/match
1.33 goals/match▲Goals allowed3/32 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.7 shots/match▲Shots3/311.3 shots/match
6.67 shots/match▲Shots on target3/34.33 shots/match
53.3%Possession3/341.7%
4.33 corners/matchCorners3/34.33 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards3/34 cards/match
14 fouls/matchFouls3/314.7 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

3 / 3 matches
2.33 goals/match▲Goals scored3/32 goals/match
1.33 goals/match▲Goals allowed3/32 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.7 shots/match▲Shots3/311.3 shots/match
6.67 shots/match▲Shots on target3/34.33 shots/match
53.3%Possession3/341.7%
4.33 corners/matchCorners3/34.33 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards3/34 cards/match
14 fouls/matchFouls3/314.7 fouls/match

Window

Season

3 / 3 matches
2.33 goals/match▲Goals scored3/32 goals/match
1.33 goals/match▲Goals allowed3/32 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.7 shots/match▲Shots3/311.3 shots/match
6.67 shots/match▲Shots on target3/34.33 shots/match
53.3%Possession3/341.7%
4.33 corners/matchCorners3/34.33 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards3/34 cards/match
14 fouls/matchFouls3/314.7 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

2 / 2 matches
—Goals scored2/2—
—Goals allowed2/2—
—Expected goals0/0—
—Shots2/2—
—Shots on target2/2—
—Possession2/2—
—Corners2/2—
—Cards2/2—
—Fouls2/2—

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

15.8 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/114.9 days
0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade C · Limited evidencelimited
Season samples3 / 3home / away teams
Recent samples3 / 3last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.
  • At least one team has an incomplete last-five window.
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
  • The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 14 Sept 2025, 17:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsFC St. PauliFC Augsburg
CompetitionBundesliga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

Make a graphic from this match

Creator Studio builds a branded post from this match's recorded data, with its evidence grade and source cutoff carried into the export.

Create a graphic from this match