Bundesliga · 2025Fri, 19 Sept 2025, 18:30 UTCFull timeMHPArenaFull-time recap

VfB Stuttgart

LWL

2–0Full-time recap

FC St. Pauli

DWW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	VfB Stuttgart	FC St. Pauli
Shots	17 shots/match▲	9 shots/match
Shots on target	8 shots/match▲	2 shots/match
Possession	54%	46%
Corners	8 corners/match	4 corners/match
Fouls	13 fouls/match	15 fouls/match
Yellow cards	0 cards/match▲	2 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The available record does not support a clear cross-team pattern. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

VfB Stuttgart favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · FC St. Pauli in 0 · 14 too close

1.25 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 4/41.75 goals/match

1.25 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 4/41.5 goals/match

—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—

—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—

14.5 shots/matchShotsseason · 4/412.5 shots/match

11.5 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 4/410 shots/match

5.25 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 4/45.5 shots/match

4 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 4/45.5 shots/match

58.5%Possessionseason · 4/451.5%

6.5 corners/matchCornersseason · 4/44.25 corners/match

6.5 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 4/43.25 corners/match

1.75 cards/matchCardsseason · 4/42 cards/match

11 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 4/414.3 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

50%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 4/425%

100%Scoring frequencyseason · 4/475%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

VfB Stuttgart86.1

FC St. Pauli52.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

VfB Stuttgart54.6

FC St. Pauli54.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

VfB Stuttgart75

FC St. Pauli63.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

VfB Stuttgart36.1

FC St. Pauli30.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

VfB Stuttgart31.9

FC St. Pauli56.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

VfB Stuttgart75

FC St. Pauli36.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

VfB Stuttgart63.2

FC St. Pauli59.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

4 / 4 matches

1.25 goals/matchGoals scored4/4▲1.75 goals/match

1.25 goals/match▲Goals allowed4/41.5 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

14.5 shots/match▲Shots4/412.5 shots/match

5.25 shots/matchShots on target4/45.5 shots/match

58.5%Possession4/451.5%

6.5 corners/matchCorners4/44.25 corners/match

1.75 cards/matchCards4/42 cards/match

11 fouls/matchFouls4/414.3 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

4 / 4 matches

1.25 goals/matchGoals scored4/4▲1.75 goals/match

1.25 goals/match▲Goals allowed4/41.5 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

14.5 shots/match▲Shots4/412.5 shots/match

5.25 shots/matchShots on target4/45.5 shots/match

58.5%Possession4/451.5%

6.5 corners/matchCorners4/44.25 corners/match

1.75 cards/matchCards4/42 cards/match

11 fouls/matchFouls4/414.3 fouls/match

Window

Season

4 / 4 matches

1.25 goals/matchGoals scored4/4▲1.75 goals/match

1.25 goals/match▲Goals allowed4/41.5 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

14.5 shots/match▲Shots4/412.5 shots/match

5.25 shots/matchShots on target4/45.5 shots/match

58.5%Possession4/451.5%

6.5 corners/matchCorners4/44.25 corners/match

1.75 cards/matchCards4/42 cards/match

11 fouls/matchFouls4/414.3 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

2 / 2 matches

—Goals scored2/2—

—Goals allowed2/2—

—Expected goals0/0—

—Shots2/2—

—Shots on target2/2—

—Possession2/2—

—Corners2/2—

—Cards2/2—

—Fouls2/2—

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.21 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/15.21 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade C · Limited evidencelimited

Season samples4 / 4home / away teams

Recent samples4 / 4last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.
At least one team has an incomplete last-five window.
Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.

Analysis cutoff: Fri, 19 Sept 2025, 22:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Make a graphic from this match

Creator Studio builds a branded post from this match's recorded data, with its evidence grade and source cutoff carried into the export.

Create a graphic from this match