PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Sat, 13 Sept 2025, 16:30 UTCFull timeAllianz ArenaFull-time recap
5–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricBayern MünchenHamburger SV
Shots22 shots/match▲9 shots/match
Shots on target12 shots/match▲2 shots/match
Possession71%29%
Corners5 corners/match3 corners/match
Fouls11 fouls/match14 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match2 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Bayern München's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. A second useful context is: Bayern München have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.

Bayern München show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Bayern München's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

20.3 shots/match▲ShotsBayern München · Hamburger SV7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricBayern MünchenHamburger SVBaseline
Shots20.3 shots/match7 shots/match13.3 shots/match
Shots against10.3 shots/match18.7 shots/match12.8 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

weak

Bayern München have recorded the higher season possession share.

64%▲PossessionBayern München · Hamburger SV38.7%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 25.3 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricBayern MünchenHamburger SVBaseline
Possession64%38.7%51.7%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Bayern München favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · Hamburger SV in 0 · 14 too close

4.67 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 3/30 goals/match
0.67 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 3/32.33 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
20.3 shots/matchShotsseason · 3/37 shots/match
10.3 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 3/318.7 shots/match
10.7 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 3/32 shots/match
2 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 3/37.33 shots/match
64%Possessionseason · 3/338.7%
5 corners/matchCornersseason · 3/33.67 corners/match
5 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 3/35.67 corners/match
3.33 cards/matchCardsseason · 3/32.33 cards/match
11.7 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 3/312.3 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
67%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 3/333%
100%Scoring frequencyseason · 3/30%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Bayern München96.4
Hamburger SV17.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Bayern München96.4
Hamburger SV7.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Bayern München94
Hamburger SV9.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Bayern München75
Hamburger SV10.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Bayern München76.8
Hamburger SV60.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Bayern München50
Hamburger SV32.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Bayern München76.8
Hamburger SV31.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

3 / 3 matches
4.67 goals/match▲Goals scored3/30 goals/match
0.67 goals/match▲Goals allowed3/32.33 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
20.3 shots/match▲Shots3/37 shots/match
10.7 shots/match▲Shots on target3/32 shots/match
64%Possession3/338.7%
5 corners/matchCorners3/33.67 corners/match
3.33 cards/matchCards3/32.33 cards/match
11.7 fouls/matchFouls3/312.3 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

3 / 3 matches
4.67 goals/match▲Goals scored3/30 goals/match
0.67 goals/match▲Goals allowed3/32.33 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
20.3 shots/match▲Shots3/37 shots/match
10.7 shots/match▲Shots on target3/32 shots/match
64%Possession3/338.7%
5 corners/matchCorners3/33.67 corners/match
3.33 cards/matchCards3/32.33 cards/match
11.7 fouls/matchFouls3/312.3 fouls/match

Window

Season

3 / 3 matches
4.67 goals/match▲Goals scored3/30 goals/match
0.67 goals/match▲Goals allowed3/32.33 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
20.3 shots/match▲Shots3/37 shots/match
10.7 shots/match▲Shots on target3/32 shots/match
64%Possession3/338.7%
5 corners/matchCorners3/33.67 corners/match
3.33 cards/matchCards3/32.33 cards/match
11.7 fouls/matchFouls3/312.3 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

2 / 2 matches
—Goals scored2/2—
—Goals allowed2/2—
—Expected goals0/0—
—Shots2/2—
—Shots on target2/2—
—Possession2/2—
—Corners2/2—
—Cards2/2—
—Fouls2/2—

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

14 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/114.9 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade C · Limited evidencelimited
Season samples3 / 3home / away teams
Recent samples3 / 3last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.
  • At least one team has an incomplete last-five window.
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
  • The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 13 Sept 2025, 20:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsBayern MünchenHamburger SV
CompetitionBundesliga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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