PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Sat, 28 Feb 2026, 17:30 UTCFull timeElland RoadFull-time recap

Leeds

DLWDD
0–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricLeedsManchester City
Shots14 shots/match14 shots/match
Shots on target2 shots/match5 shots/match▲
Possession33%67%
Corners5 corners/match3 corners/match
Fouls10 fouls/match8 fouls/match
Yellow cards0 cards/match▲3 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Leeds's last-five shots average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Manchester City have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Leeds's recent record differs from the season

weak

Leeds's last-five shots average is below their season average.

9.8 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season12.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots9.8 shots/match12.3 shots/match12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Manchester City have recorded the higher season possession share.

44.7%▲PossessionLeeds · Manchester City59.2%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 14.5 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricLeedsManchester CityBaseline
Possession44.7%59.2%50.2%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Leeds
0Draws
1Manchester City
Manchester City — Leeds · Premier League3–2

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Leeds favored in 1 of 14 directional metrics · Manchester City in 9 · 4 too close

1.32 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 28/28▲2.04 goals/match
1.68 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 28/28▲0.89 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
12.3 shots/matchShotsseason · 28/28▲14.2 shots/match
12.5 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 28/28▲10.1 shots/match
3.89 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 28/28▲5.14 shots/match
4.21 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 28/28▲3.5 shots/match
44.7%Possessionseason · 28/2859.2%
4.36 corners/matchCornersseason · 28/285.32 corners/match
4.43 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 28/28▲3.89 corners/match
1.61 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 28/281.93 cards/match
10.4 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 28/2810.1 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
14%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 28/28▲43%
71%Scoring frequencyseason · 28/28▲86%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Leeds27.5
Manchester City92.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Leeds42.5
Manchester City90.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Leeds31.7
Manchester City92.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Leeds92.5
Manchester City42.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Leeds35
Manchester City40
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Leeds27.5
Manchester City62.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Leeds40
Manchester City67.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.2 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2 goals/match
1.8 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲0.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
9.8 shots/matchShots5/5▲14.8 shots/match
2.8 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲5.4 shots/match
41.2%Possession5/558.2%
3.4 corners/matchCorners5/54 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards5/53 cards/match
11.6 fouls/matchFouls5/511.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.2 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.4 goals/match
1.5 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲0.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.6 shots/matchShots10/10▲14.2 shots/match
3.4 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲4.5 shots/match
40.8%Possession10/1060.8%
4.1 corners/matchCorners10/104.9 corners/match
1.8 cards/matchCards10/102.4 cards/match
10.4 fouls/matchFouls10/1010.4 fouls/match

Window

Season

28 / 28 matches
1.32 goals/matchGoals scored28/28▲2.04 goals/match
1.68 goals/matchGoals allowed28/28▲0.89 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.3 shots/matchShots28/28▲14.2 shots/match
3.89 shots/matchShots on target28/28▲5.14 shots/match
44.7%Possession28/2859.2%
4.36 corners/matchCorners28/285.32 corners/match
1.61 cards/matchCards28/281.93 cards/match
10.4 fouls/matchFouls28/2810.1 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

14 / 14 matches
1.57 goals/matchGoals scored14/141.64 goals/match
1.36 goals/matchGoals allowed14/14▲1.14 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.1 shots/match▲Shots14/1412.7 shots/match
4.29 shots/match▲Shots on target14/144.07 shots/match
45.8%Possession14/1459.3%
5.29 corners/matchCorners14/144 corners/match
1.5 cards/matchCards14/142.29 cards/match
10.1 fouls/matchFouls14/149.79 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.1 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.9 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples28 / 28home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 28 Feb 2026, 21:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsLeedsManchester City
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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