PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Tue, 3 Mar 2026, 19:30 UTCFull timeElland RoadFull-time recap

Leeds

LWDDL
0–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricLeedsSunderland
Shots18 shots/match▲3 shots/match
Shots on target4 shots/match▲1 shots/match
Possession70%30%
Corners9 corners/match2 corners/match
Fouls15 fouls/match19 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match▲3 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Sunderland's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Leeds, Sunderland. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Sunderland's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Sunderland's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.03 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.6 goals/match1.03 goals/match1.36 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Leeds, Sunderland.

3.08 days▲Rest daysLeeds · Sunderland3.29 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricLeedsSunderlandBaseline
Rest days3.08 days3.29 days—
Matches last 14 days2 matches2 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Leeds have a visible home split

moderate

Leeds's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

14.4 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season12.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots14.4 shots/match12.5 shots/match12.6 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Leeds
1Draws
0Sunderland
Sunderland — Leeds · Premier League1–1

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Leeds favored in 8 of 14 directional metrics · Sunderland in 2 · 4 too close

1.28 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 29/291.03 goals/match
1.66 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 29/29▲1.17 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
12.5 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 29/299.48 shots/match
12.2 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 29/2914.7 shots/match
3.9 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 29/293.14 shots/match
4.1 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 29/294.34 shots/match
45.6%Possessionseason · 29/2943.6%
4.52 corners/matchCornersseason · 29/293.41 corners/match
4.34 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 29/295.14 corners/match
1.59 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 29/292.07 cards/match
10.5 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 29/2910.2 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
14%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 29/29▲31%
69%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 29/2966%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Leeds32.5
Sunderland17.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Leeds42.5
Sunderland10.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Leeds42.5
Sunderland37.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Leeds92.5
Sunderland7.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Leeds35
Sunderland50
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Leeds32.5
Sunderland7.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Leeds41.2
Sunderland16.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.2 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.6 goals/match
1.2 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.8 shots/match▲Shots5/57.8 shots/match
3.4 shots/match▲Shots on target5/52.4 shots/match
45.2%Possession5/543%
4.4 corners/matchCorners5/53.2 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards5/51.8 cards/match
12.6 fouls/matchFouls5/510.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.2 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101 goals/match
1.6 goals/matchGoals allowed10/101.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12 shots/match▲Shots10/109.4 shots/match
3.6 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.2 shots/match
44.6%Possession10/1046.9%
4.7 corners/matchCorners10/103.2 corners/match
1.7 cards/matchCards10/102.1 cards/match
11.1 fouls/matchFouls10/1010.8 fouls/match

Window

Season

29 / 29 matches
1.28 goals/match▲Goals scored29/291.03 goals/match
1.66 goals/matchGoals allowed29/29▲1.17 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.5 shots/match▲Shots29/299.48 shots/match
3.9 shots/match▲Shots on target29/293.14 shots/match
45.6%Possession29/2943.6%
4.52 corners/matchCorners29/293.41 corners/match
1.59 cards/matchCards29/292.07 cards/match
10.5 fouls/matchFouls29/2910.2 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

15 / 15 matches
1.47 goals/match▲Goals scored15/150.53 goals/match
1.33 goals/matchGoals allowed15/151.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.4 shots/match▲Shots15/158.2 shots/match
4.27 shots/match▲Shots on target15/152.8 shots/match
47.4%Possession15/1543%
5.53 corners/matchCorners15/153.27 corners/match
1.47 cards/matchCards15/152.07 cards/match
10.4 fouls/matchFouls15/1510.7 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

3.08 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/13.29 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples29 / 29home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Tue, 3 Mar 2026, 23:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsLeedsSunderland
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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