PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Sat, 28 Feb 2026, 12:30 UTCFull timeVitality StadiumFull-time recap
1–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricBournemouthSunderland
Shots21 shots/match▲8 shots/match
Shots on target5 shots/match▲4 shots/match
Possession62%38%
Corners7 corners/match3 corners/match
Fouls15 fouls/match12 fouls/match
Yellow cards4 cards/match2 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Bournemouth's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Bournemouth's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Bournemouth's recent record differs from the season

weak

Bournemouth's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.57 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match1.57 goals/match1.37 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Bournemouth show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Bournemouth's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

13.7 shots/match▲ShotsBournemouth · Sunderland9.71 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricBournemouthSunderlandBaseline
Shots13.7 shots/match9.71 shots/match12.5 shots/match
Shots against12.8 shots/match14.6 shots/match12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Bournemouth
0Draws
1Sunderland
Sunderland — Bournemouth · Premier League3–2

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Bournemouth favored in 5 of 14 directional metrics · Sunderland in 5 · 4 too close

1.57 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 28/281.04 goals/match
1.64 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 28/28▲1.21 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
13.7 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 28/289.71 shots/match
12.8 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 28/2814.6 shots/match
4.93 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 28/283.21 shots/match
4.68 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 28/28▲4.36 shots/match
49.9%Possessionseason · 28/2844.1%
5.68 corners/matchCornersseason · 28/283.46 corners/match
5.29 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 28/28▲5 corners/match
2.43 cards/matchCardsseason · 28/28▲2.04 cards/match
12.3 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 28/289.89 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
25%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 28/28▲29%
82%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 28/2864%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Bournemouth47.5
Sunderland22.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Bournemouth76.7
Sunderland10.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Bournemouth20.8
Sunderland34.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Bournemouth92.5
Sunderland12.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Bournemouth90
Sunderland37.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Bournemouth77.5
Sunderland10
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Bournemouth82.5
Sunderland11.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.2 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51 goals/match
0.6 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.2 shots/match▲Shots5/510 shots/match
5.4 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.2 shots/match
53.8%Possession5/545.8%
6.2 corners/matchCorners5/53 corners/match
2.4 cards/matchCards5/51.4 cards/match
12 fouls/matchFouls5/59.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.7 goals/match▲Goals scored10/100.9 goals/match
1.3 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.7 shots/match▲Shots10/1010.1 shots/match
4.6 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.5 shots/match
45.3%Possession10/1047.1%
5.3 corners/matchCorners10/103.3 corners/match
2.3 cards/matchCards10/101.9 cards/match
11.7 fouls/matchFouls10/109.8 fouls/match

Window

Season

28 / 28 matches
1.57 goals/match▲Goals scored28/281.04 goals/match
1.64 goals/matchGoals allowed28/28▲1.21 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.7 shots/match▲Shots28/289.71 shots/match
4.93 shots/match▲Shots on target28/283.21 shots/match
49.9%Possession28/2844.1%
5.68 corners/matchCorners28/283.46 corners/match
2.43 cards/matchCards28/282.04 cards/match
12.3 fouls/matchFouls28/289.89 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

14 / 14 matches
1.5 goals/match▲Goals scored14/140.5 goals/match
1.07 goals/match▲Goals allowed14/141.5 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.5 shots/match▲Shots14/148.57 shots/match
4.64 shots/match▲Shots on target14/142.93 shots/match
52.9%Possession14/1443.9%
5.57 corners/matchCorners14/143.36 corners/match
2.14 cards/matchCards14/142 cards/match
12 fouls/matchFouls14/1410.1 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.79 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/15.94 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples28 / 28home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 28 Feb 2026, 16:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsBournemouthSunderland
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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