PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Tue, 3 Mar 2026, 19:30 UTCFull timeVitality StadiumFull-time recap
0–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricBournemouthBrentford
Shots13 shots/match▲5 shots/match
Shots on target2 shots/match2 shots/match
Possession48%52%
Corners4 corners/match3 corners/match
Fouls9 fouls/match10 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match1 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Bournemouth's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Bournemouth, Brentford. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Bournemouth's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Bournemouth's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.52 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match1.52 goals/match1.36 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Bournemouth, Brentford.

3.29 days▲Rest daysBournemouth · Brentford3.19 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricBournemouthBrentfordBaseline
Rest days3.29 days3.19 days—
Matches last 14 days2 matches2 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Bournemouth
0Draws
1Brentford
Brentford — Bournemouth · Premier League4–1

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Bournemouth favored in 4 of 14 directional metrics · Brentford in 3 · 7 too close

1.52 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 29/291.52 goals/match
1.59 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 29/29▲1.38 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
13.7 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 29/2910.5 shots/match
12.6 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 29/2912.6 shots/match
4.83 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 29/294.03 shots/match
4.59 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 29/29▲3.97 shots/match
49.8%Possessionseason · 29/2947.2%
5.62 corners/matchCornersseason · 29/295 corners/match
5.21 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 29/295.03 corners/match
2.41 cards/matchCardsseason · 29/29▲1.97 cards/match
12.1 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 29/2911.1 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
28%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 29/2924%
79%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 29/2969%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Bournemouth47.5
Brentford37.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Bournemouth76.7
Brentford46.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Bournemouth28.3
Brentford51.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Bournemouth87.5
Brentford22.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Bournemouth87.5
Brentford62.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Bournemouth77.5
Brentford52.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Bournemouth82.5
Brentford48.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
0.8 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.6 goals/match
0.6 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15 shots/match▲Shots5/511.4 shots/match
5 shots/match▲Shots on target5/54 shots/match
53.6%Possession5/550%
5.8 corners/matchCorners5/55.2 corners/match
2.2 cards/matchCards5/51.8 cards/match
10.8 fouls/matchFouls5/511.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.5 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.6 goals/match
1.1 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.3 shots/match▲Shots10/1011.7 shots/match
4.2 shots/matchShots on target10/104.1 shots/match
46.8%Possession10/1050.4%
5.4 corners/matchCorners10/105.4 corners/match
2.4 cards/matchCards10/102 cards/match
11.4 fouls/matchFouls10/1010.8 fouls/match

Window

Season

29 / 29 matches
1.52 goals/matchGoals scored29/291.52 goals/match
1.59 goals/matchGoals allowed29/29▲1.38 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.7 shots/match▲Shots29/2910.5 shots/match
4.83 shots/match▲Shots on target29/294.03 shots/match
49.8%Possession29/2947.2%
5.62 corners/matchCorners29/295 corners/match
2.41 cards/matchCards29/291.97 cards/match
12.1 fouls/matchFouls29/2911.1 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

15 / 15 matches
1.4 goals/matchGoals scored15/151.33 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed15/151.67 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.4 shots/match▲Shots15/159.6 shots/match
4.47 shots/match▲Shots on target15/153.93 shots/match
52.6%Possession15/1548.7%
5.47 corners/matchCorners15/155.67 corners/match
2.13 cards/matchCards15/152.2 cards/match
11.8 fouls/matchFouls15/1511.1 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

3.29 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/13.19 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples29 / 29home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Tue, 3 Mar 2026, 23:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsBournemouthBrentford
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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