PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Tue, 3 Mar 2026, 19:30 UTCFull timeHill Dickinson StadiumFull-time recap

Everton

DWLLW
2–0Full-time recap

Burnley

LLWDL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricEvertonBurnley
Shots14 shots/match▲5 shots/match
Shots on target5 shots/match▲2 shots/match
Possession55%45%
Corners6 corners/match3 corners/match
Fouls10 fouls/match12 fouls/match
Yellow cards0 cards/match▲1 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Everton's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Everton, Burnley. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Everton's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Everton's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.17 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.6 goals/match1.17 goals/match1.36 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Everton, Burnley.

3.19 days▲Rest daysEverton · Burnley3.19 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricEvertonBurnleyBaseline
Rest days3.19 days3.19 days—
Matches last 14 days2 matches2 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Everton
1Draws
0Burnley
Burnley — Everton · Premier League0–0

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Everton favored in 9 of 14 directional metrics · Burnley in 1 · 4 too close

1.17 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 29/291.1 goals/match
1.14 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 29/292 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
11.1 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 29/299.07 shots/match
13.2 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 29/2916.4 shots/match
3.41 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 29/292.93 shots/match
4.03 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 29/295.72 shots/match
44.1%Possessionseason · 29/2941.2%
4.45 corners/matchCornersseason · 29/293.45 corners/match
4.97 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 29/295.93 corners/match
2.03 cards/matchCardsseason · 29/29▲1.79 cards/match
10.6 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 29/2910 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
34%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 29/2910%
72%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 29/2966%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Everton22.5
Burnley2.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Everton25.8
Burnley10.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Everton54.2
Burnley2.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Everton62.5
Burnley17.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Everton55
Burnley30
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Everton27.5
Burnley12.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Everton32.5
Burnley10
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.6 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.4 goals/match
1.2 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52.2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.4 shots/match▲Shots5/511 shots/match
4.6 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.4 shots/match
47%Possession5/541.6%
6.2 corners/matchCorners5/53.8 corners/match
2.4 cards/matchCards5/51.8 cards/match
11 fouls/matchFouls5/510.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.4 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.2 goals/match
1.3 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/102.1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12 shots/match▲Shots10/108.8 shots/match
4.1 shots/match▲Shots on target10/102.6 shots/match
46.6%Possession10/1040.4%
4.7 corners/matchCorners10/102.9 corners/match
2.1 cards/matchCards10/102.2 cards/match
11.3 fouls/matchFouls10/1010.5 fouls/match

Window

Season

29 / 29 matches
1.17 goals/match▲Goals scored29/291.1 goals/match
1.14 goals/match▲Goals allowed29/292 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.1 shots/match▲Shots29/299.07 shots/match
3.41 shots/match▲Shots on target29/292.93 shots/match
44.1%Possession29/2941.2%
4.45 corners/matchCorners29/293.45 corners/match
2.03 cards/matchCards29/291.79 cards/match
10.6 fouls/matchFouls29/2910 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

15 / 15 matches
1.2 goals/match▲Goals scored15/151.13 goals/match
1.27 goals/match▲Goals allowed15/152.33 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.5 shots/match▲Shots15/158.13 shots/match
3.93 shots/match▲Shots on target15/152.93 shots/match
48.3%Possession15/1539.7%
5.47 corners/matchCorners15/153.6 corners/match
2.07 cards/matchCards15/152.07 cards/match
10.4 fouls/matchFouls15/1510.4 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

3.19 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/13.19 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples29 / 29home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Tue, 3 Mar 2026, 23:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsEvertonBurnley
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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