PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Sat, 28 Feb 2026, 15:00 UTCFull timeSt. James' ParkFull-time recap
2–3Full-time recap

Everton

DDWLL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricNewcastleEverton
Shots17 shots/match▲9 shots/match
Shots on target7 shots/match▲5 shots/match
Possession66%34%
Corners7 corners/match2 corners/match
Fouls15 fouls/match7 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match▲3 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Everton's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Newcastle have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Everton's recent record differs from the season

weak

Everton's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.14 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match1.14 goals/match1.36 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Newcastle have recorded the higher season possession share.

53.5%▲PossessionNewcastle · Everton43.7%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 9.8 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricNewcastleEvertonBaseline
Possession53.5%43.7%50.2%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Newcastle
0Draws
0Everton
Everton — Newcastle · Premier League1–4

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Newcastle favored in 5 of 14 directional metrics · Everton in 2 · 7 too close

1.43 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 28/281.14 goals/match
1.5 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 28/28▲1.18 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
13.4 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 28/2811 shots/match
11.3 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 28/2813.5 shots/match
4.71 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 28/283.36 shots/match
4.18 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 28/284.11 shots/match
53.5%Possessionseason · 28/2843.7%
6.86 corners/matchCornersseason · 28/284.39 corners/match
4.96 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 28/285.04 corners/match
1.75 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 28/282.11 cards/match
9.71 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 28/2810.6 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
25%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 28/28▲32%
75%Scoring frequencyseason · 28/2871%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Newcastle72.5
Everton17.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Newcastle69.2
Everton25
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Newcastle47.5
Everton49.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Newcastle57.5
Everton62.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Newcastle22.5
Everton60
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Newcastle97.5
Everton32.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Newcastle63.8
Everton33.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.6 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.4 goals/match
2.6 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15 shots/match▲Shots5/512 shots/match
5 shots/match▲Shots on target5/54.4 shots/match
51.6%Possession5/545.2%
8.8 corners/matchCorners5/55.4 corners/match
2.8 cards/matchCards5/52.8 cards/match
12 fouls/matchFouls5/511.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.7 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.4 goals/match
1.9 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.3 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.2 shots/match▲Shots10/1011.7 shots/match
5.5 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.9 shots/match
56%Possession10/1044.1%
7.7 corners/matchCorners10/104.3 corners/match
2.2 cards/matchCards10/102.1 cards/match
9.4 fouls/matchFouls10/1011.2 fouls/match

Window

Season

28 / 28 matches
1.43 goals/match▲Goals scored28/281.14 goals/match
1.5 goals/matchGoals allowed28/28▲1.18 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.4 shots/match▲Shots28/2811 shots/match
4.71 shots/match▲Shots on target28/283.36 shots/match
53.5%Possession28/2843.7%
6.86 corners/matchCorners28/284.39 corners/match
1.75 cards/matchCards28/282.11 cards/match
9.71 fouls/matchFouls28/2810.6 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

14 / 14 matches
1.86 goals/match▲Goals scored14/141.14 goals/match
1.64 goals/matchGoals allowed14/14▲1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.6 shots/match▲Shots14/149.5 shots/match
5.71 shots/match▲Shots on target14/142.86 shots/match
52.9%Possession14/1439.5%
7.43 corners/matchCorners14/143.36 corners/match
1.5 cards/matchCards14/142 cards/match
11 fouls/matchFouls14/1410.8 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.79 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/14.79 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples28 / 28home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 28 Feb 2026, 19:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsNewcastleEverton
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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