PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Sat, 28 Feb 2026, 15:00 UTCFull timeAnfieldFull-time recap
5–2Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricLiverpoolWest Ham
Shots18 shots/match▲11 shots/match
Shots on target7 shots/match▲4 shots/match
Possession49%51%
Corners10 corners/match5 corners/match
Fouls12 fouls/match11 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match2 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Liverpool's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Liverpool's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Liverpool's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Liverpool's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.68 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.4 goals/match1.68 goals/match1.36 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Liverpool show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Liverpool's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

15.6 shots/match▲ShotsLiverpool · West Ham10.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricLiverpoolWest HamBaseline
Shots15.6 shots/match10.5 shots/match12.5 shots/match
Shots against11.1 shots/match14.8 shots/match12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Liverpool have recorded the higher season possession share.

60%▲PossessionLiverpool · West Ham42.8%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 17.2 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricLiverpoolWest HamBaseline
Possession60%42.8%50.2%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Liverpool
0Draws
0West Ham
West Ham — Liverpool · Premier League0–2

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Liverpool favored in 10 of 14 directional metrics · West Ham in 0 · 4 too close

1.68 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 28/281.21 goals/match
1.32 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 28/281.93 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
15.6 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 28/2810.5 shots/match
11.1 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 28/2814.8 shots/match
4.43 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 28/283.54 shots/match
3.61 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 28/285.36 shots/match
60%Possessionseason · 28/2842.8%
5.82 corners/matchCornersseason · 28/285.14 corners/match
4.57 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 28/286.29 corners/match
1.57 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 28/281.79 cards/match
9.57 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 28/2811 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
32%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 28/2811%
86%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 28/2868%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Liverpool97.5
West Ham7.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Liverpool79.2
West Ham24.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Liverpool74.2
West Ham7.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Liverpool72.5
West Ham52.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Liverpool13.8
West Ham51.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Liverpool82.5
West Ham57.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Liverpool62.5
West Ham40.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
2.4 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.4 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
16.6 shots/match▲Shots5/511 shots/match
5 shots/match▲Shots on target5/54 shots/match
52%Possession5/540.6%
7 corners/matchCorners5/54.8 corners/match
1.2 cards/matchCards5/51.6 cards/match
11 fouls/matchFouls5/510.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.7 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.5 goals/match
1.1 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
16.6 shots/match▲Shots10/1011.5 shots/match
4.6 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.6 shots/match
57.8%Possession10/1044.1%
7.1 corners/matchCorners10/105 corners/match
1.1 cards/matchCards10/101.9 cards/match
9.3 fouls/matchFouls10/1011.6 fouls/match

Window

Season

28 / 28 matches
1.68 goals/match▲Goals scored28/281.21 goals/match
1.32 goals/match▲Goals allowed28/281.93 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.6 shots/match▲Shots28/2810.5 shots/match
4.43 shots/match▲Shots on target28/283.54 shots/match
60%Possession28/2842.8%
5.82 corners/matchCorners28/285.14 corners/match
1.57 cards/matchCards28/281.79 cards/match
9.57 fouls/matchFouls28/2811 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

14 / 14 matches
1.86 goals/match▲Goals scored14/141.21 goals/match
1.14 goals/match▲Goals allowed14/141.93 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
17.9 shots/match▲Shots14/149.93 shots/match
5.36 shots/match▲Shots on target14/143.5 shots/match
59.9%Possession14/1442.9%
6.14 corners/matchCorners14/144.43 corners/match
1.29 cards/matchCards14/141.86 cards/match
9.57 fouls/matchFouls14/1411.1 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.04 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.9 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples28 / 28home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 28 Feb 2026, 19:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsLiverpoolWest Ham
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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