PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Tue, 3 Mar 2026, 20:15 UTCFull timeMolineux StadiumFull-time recap

Wolves

LDDLW
2–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricWolvesLiverpool
Shots4 shots/match19 shots/match▲
Shots on target3 shots/match7 shots/match▲
Possession34%66%
Corners2 corners/match11 corners/match
Fouls10 fouls/match13 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match1 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Wolves's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Wolves, Liverpool. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Wolves's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Wolves's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.73 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match0.73 goals/match1.36 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Wolves, Liverpool.

4.01 days▲Rest daysWolves · Liverpool3.22 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricWolvesLiverpoolBaseline
Rest days4.01 days3.22 days—
Matches last 14 days3 matches2 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Wolves show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Wolves's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

9.07 shots/match▲ShotsWolves · Liverpool15.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricWolvesLiverpoolBaseline
Shots9.07 shots/match15.8 shots/match12.6 shots/match
Shots against14 shots/match10.8 shots/match12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Wolves
0Draws
1Liverpool
Liverpool — Wolves · Premier League2–1

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Wolves favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · Liverpool in 10 · 4 too close

0.73 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 30/29▲1.66 goals/match
1.73 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 30/29▲1.34 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
9.07 shots/matchShotsseason · 30/29▲15.8 shots/match
14 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 30/29▲10.8 shots/match
3.23 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 30/29▲4.52 shots/match
4.67 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 30/29▲3.59 shots/match
42.9%Possessionseason · 30/2960.2%
3.13 corners/matchCornersseason · 30/296 corners/match
6.2 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 30/29▲4.48 corners/match
2.27 cards/matchCardsseason · 30/29▲1.55 cards/match
13.3 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 30/299.69 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
13%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 30/29▲31%
50%Scoring frequencyseason · 30/29▲86%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Wolves12.5
Liverpool97.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Wolves5.8
Liverpool79.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Wolves14.2
Liverpool77.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Wolves2.5
Liverpool77.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Wolves87.5
Liverpool12.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Wolves2.5
Liverpool90
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Wolves28.8
Liverpool64.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.2 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.8 goals/match
0.8 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
7.4 shots/matchShots5/5▲17 shots/match
3.4 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲5 shots/match
38.2%Possession5/554.4%
1.6 corners/matchCorners5/57.8 corners/match
2.6 cards/matchCards5/51.2 cards/match
10.8 fouls/matchFouls5/511.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
0.8 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.8 goals/match
1.2 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.3 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
9.4 shots/matchShots10/10▲16.6 shots/match
3.4 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲4.9 shots/match
40%Possession10/1057.6%
3.3 corners/matchCorners10/107.4 corners/match
2.5 cards/matchCards10/101.2 cards/match
11.8 fouls/matchFouls10/109.6 fouls/match

Window

Season

30 / 29 matches
0.73 goals/matchGoals scored30/29▲1.66 goals/match
1.73 goals/matchGoals allowed30/29▲1.34 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
9.07 shots/matchShots30/29▲15.8 shots/match
3.23 shots/matchShots on target30/29▲4.52 shots/match
42.9%Possession30/2960.2%
3.13 corners/matchCorners30/296 corners/match
2.27 cards/matchCards30/291.55 cards/match
13.3 fouls/matchFouls30/299.69 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

16 / 15 matches
1.06 goals/matchGoals scored16/15▲1.47 goals/match
1.94 goals/matchGoals allowed16/15▲1.53 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
9.44 shots/matchShots16/15▲13.7 shots/match
3.5 shots/matchShots on target16/15▲3.73 shots/match
43.8%Possession16/1560.5%
2.81 corners/matchCorners16/155.87 corners/match
1.75 cards/matchCards16/151.8 cards/match
12.4 fouls/matchFouls16/159.8 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

4.01 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/13.22 days
3 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples30 / 29home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Wed, 4 Mar 2026, 00:15 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsWolvesLiverpool
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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