PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Fri, 27 Feb 2026, 20:00 UTCFull timeMolineux StadiumFull-time recap

Wolves

LLDDL
2–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricWolvesAston Villa
Shots9 shots/match14 shots/match▲
Shots on target2 shots/match5 shots/match▲
Possession39%61%
Corners0 corners/match5 corners/match
Fouls12 fouls/match19 fouls/match
Yellow cards3 cards/match3 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Aston Villa's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Wolves's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Aston Villa's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Aston Villa's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.36 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.6 goals/match1.36 goals/match1.37 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Wolves show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Wolves's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

9.24 shots/match▲ShotsWolves · Aston Villa12.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricWolvesAston VillaBaseline
Shots9.24 shots/match12.7 shots/match12.5 shots/match
Shots against13.8 shots/match12.7 shots/match12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Aston Villa have recorded the higher season possession share.

43.2%▲PossessionWolves · Aston Villa54%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 10.8 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricWolvesAston VillaBaseline
Possession43.2%54%50%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Wolves
0Draws
1Aston Villa
Aston Villa — Wolves · Premier League1–0

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Wolves favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · Aston Villa in 10 · 4 too close

0.69 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 29/28▲1.36 goals/match
1.76 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 29/28▲1.07 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
9.24 shots/matchShotsseason · 29/28▲12.7 shots/match
13.8 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 29/28▲12.7 shots/match
3.24 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 29/28▲4.36 shots/match
4.59 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 29/28▲4.14 shots/match
43.2%Possessionseason · 29/2854%
3.17 corners/matchCornersseason · 29/285.39 corners/match
6.03 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 29/28▲4.57 corners/match
2.28 cards/matchCardsseason · 29/28▲1.57 cards/match
13.4 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 29/2810.2 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
14%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 29/28▲29%
48%Scoring frequencyseason · 29/28▲68%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Wolves12.5
Aston Villa77.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Wolves7.5
Aston Villa54.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Wolves15.8
Aston Villa55.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Wolves2.5
Aston Villa37.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Wolves87.5
Aston Villa27.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Wolves2.5
Aston Villa62.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Wolves30
Aston Villa53.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.6 goals/match
1.2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
8.8 shots/matchShots5/5▲15.8 shots/match
3.4 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲3.8 shots/match
38.2%Possession5/559.4%
1.8 corners/matchCorners5/57 corners/match
2.4 cards/matchCards5/51.6 cards/match
10.6 fouls/matchFouls5/511.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
0.9 goals/matchGoals scored10/100.9 goals/match
1.1 goals/matchGoals allowed10/101.1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.1 shots/matchShots10/10▲14.8 shots/match
3.9 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲4.2 shots/match
39.9%Possession10/1058.5%
3.7 corners/matchCorners10/105.8 corners/match
2.4 cards/matchCards10/101.5 cards/match
11.9 fouls/matchFouls10/1010.7 fouls/match

Window

Season

29 / 28 matches
0.69 goals/matchGoals scored29/28▲1.36 goals/match
1.76 goals/matchGoals allowed29/28▲1.07 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
9.24 shots/matchShots29/28▲12.7 shots/match
3.24 shots/matchShots on target29/28▲4.36 shots/match
43.2%Possession29/2854%
3.17 corners/matchCorners29/285.39 corners/match
2.28 cards/matchCards29/281.57 cards/match
13.4 fouls/matchFouls29/2810.2 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

15 / 14 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored15/14▲1.29 goals/match
2 goals/matchGoals allowed15/14▲1.36 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
9.8 shots/matchShots15/14▲11.5 shots/match
3.53 shots/matchShots on target15/14▲4.14 shots/match
44.4%Possession15/1453.2%
2.87 corners/matchCorners15/144.86 corners/match
1.73 cards/matchCards15/141.86 cards/match
12.5 fouls/matchFouls15/1410.7 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

5.25 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.21 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples29 / 28home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 28 Feb 2026, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsWolvesAston Villa
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

Make a graphic from this match

Creator Studio builds a branded post from this match's recorded data, with its evidence grade and source cutoff carried into the export.

Create a graphic from this match