PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Wed, 4 Mar 2026, 19:30 UTCFull timeVilla ParkFull-time recap
1–4Full-time recap

Chelsea

WWDDL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricAston VillaChelsea
Shots9 shots/match15 shots/match▲
Shots on target4 shots/match8 shots/match▲
Possession43%57%
Corners3 corners/match8 corners/match
Fouls10 fouls/match9 fouls/match
Yellow cards3 cards/match2 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Aston Villa's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Chelsea. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Aston Villa's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Aston Villa's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.34 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match1.34 goals/match1.35 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Chelsea.

4.98 days▲Rest daysAston Villa · Chelsea3.12 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricAston VillaChelseaBaseline
Rest days4.98 days3.12 days—
Matches last 14 days2 matches2 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Aston Villa
0Draws
0Chelsea
Chelsea — Aston Villa · Premier League1–2

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Aston Villa favored in 1 of 14 directional metrics · Chelsea in 8 · 5 too close

1.34 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 29/29▲1.83 goals/match
1.17 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 29/291.17 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
12.6 shots/matchShotsseason · 29/29▲13.5 shots/match
12.8 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 29/29▲10.9 shots/match
4.34 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 29/29▲4.76 shots/match
4.28 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 29/29▲3.86 shots/match
53.6%Possessionseason · 29/2958.7%
5.31 corners/matchCornersseason · 29/296.07 corners/match
4.69 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 29/29▲4.28 corners/match
1.62 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 29/292.76 cards/match
10.2 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 29/2911.2 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
28%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 29/29▲31%
69%Scoring frequencyseason · 29/29▲93%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Aston Villa77.5
Chelsea87.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Aston Villa52.5
Chelsea79.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Aston Villa51.7
Chelsea77.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Aston Villa32.5
Chelsea27.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Aston Villa30
Chelsea87.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Aston Villa62.5
Chelsea92.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Aston Villa51.2
Chelsea80
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
0.8 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2.2 goals/match
1.6 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.2 shots/matchShots5/5▲14 shots/match
3.6 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲4.6 shots/match
53.6%Possession5/563%
5.2 corners/matchCorners5/57 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards5/53.6 cards/match
12 fouls/matchFouls5/511 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
0.9 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲2.1 goals/match
1.1 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.3 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.6 shots/match▲Shots10/1012.2 shots/match
4.3 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲4.6 shots/match
57.4%Possession10/1057.7%
5.8 corners/matchCorners10/106.5 corners/match
1.5 cards/matchCards10/103.3 cards/match
10.8 fouls/matchFouls10/1010.3 fouls/match

Window

Season

29 / 29 matches
1.34 goals/matchGoals scored29/29▲1.83 goals/match
1.17 goals/matchGoals allowed29/291.17 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.6 shots/matchShots29/29▲13.5 shots/match
4.34 shots/matchShots on target29/29▲4.76 shots/match
53.6%Possession29/2958.7%
5.31 corners/matchCorners29/296.07 corners/match
1.62 cards/matchCards29/292.76 cards/match
10.2 fouls/matchFouls29/2911.2 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

15 / 15 matches
1.4 goals/matchGoals scored15/15▲2 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed15/151.2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.6 shots/match▲Shots15/1512.6 shots/match
4.53 shots/matchShots on target15/15▲5.07 shots/match
54%Possession15/1556.9%
5.73 corners/matchCorners15/155.2 corners/match
1.4 cards/matchCards15/153.07 cards/match
9.67 fouls/matchFouls15/1511.5 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

4.98 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/13.12 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples29 / 29home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Wed, 4 Mar 2026, 23:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsAston VillaChelsea
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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