PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Sun, 1 Mar 2026, 16:30 UTCFull timeEmirates StadiumFull-time recap

Arsenal

WWDDW
2–1Full-time recap

Chelsea

WWWDD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricArsenalChelsea
Shots12 shots/match▲9 shots/match
Shots on target5 shots/match▲3 shots/match
Possession41%59%
Corners5 corners/match10 corners/match
Fouls11 fouls/match14 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match▲5 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Arsenal's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Arsenal's recent record differs from the season

weak

Arsenal's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.4 goals/match2 goals/match1.36 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Both teams have elevated corners records

moderate

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

5.86 corners/match▲CornersArsenal · Chelsea6 corners/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricArsenalChelseaBaseline
Corners5.86 corners/match6 corners/match5 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

Chelsea show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Chelsea's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

14.6 shots/match▲ShotsArsenal · Chelsea13.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricArsenalChelseaBaseline
Shots14.6 shots/match13.5 shots/match12.5 shots/match
Shots against7.66 shots/match11 shots/match12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Arsenal
1Draws
0Chelsea
Chelsea — Arsenal · Premier League1–1

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Arsenal favored in 9 of 14 directional metrics · Chelsea in 0 · 5 too close

2 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 29/281.75 goals/match
0.76 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 29/281.18 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
14.6 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 29/2813.5 shots/match
7.66 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 29/2811 shots/match
4.97 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 29/284.64 shots/match
2.28 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 29/283.86 shots/match
57%Possessionseason · 29/2858.7%
5.86 corners/matchCornersseason · 29/286 corners/match
3.24 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 29/284.32 corners/match
1.34 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 29/282.79 cards/match
10.1 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 29/2811.3 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
45%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 29/2832%
90%Scoring frequencyseason · 29/2893%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Arsenal82.5
Chelsea87.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Arsenal89.2
Chelsea75.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Arsenal97.5
Chelsea80
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Arsenal67.5
Chelsea27.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Arsenal15
Chelsea87.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Arsenal87.5
Chelsea92.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Arsenal72.5
Chelsea78.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
2.4 goals/match▲Goals scored5/52 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13 shots/matchShots5/5▲13.8 shots/match
4.6 shots/match▲Shots on target5/54.2 shots/match
53.4%Possession5/565.8%
4.4 corners/matchCorners5/57.2 corners/match
1.2 cards/matchCards5/53.8 cards/match
10.4 fouls/matchFouls5/511.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
2.1 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.9 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13 shots/matchShots10/1012.4 shots/match
4.7 shots/match▲Shots on target10/104.1 shots/match
53.8%Possession10/1058.7%
6 corners/matchCorners10/106.9 corners/match
1.3 cards/matchCards10/103.2 cards/match
10.2 fouls/matchFouls10/109.9 fouls/match

Window

Season

29 / 28 matches
2 goals/match▲Goals scored29/281.75 goals/match
0.76 goals/match▲Goals allowed29/281.18 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.6 shots/match▲Shots29/2813.5 shots/match
4.97 shots/match▲Shots on target29/284.64 shots/match
57%Possession29/2858.7%
5.86 corners/matchCorners29/286 corners/match
1.34 cards/matchCards29/282.79 cards/match
10.1 fouls/matchFouls29/2811.3 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

14 / 14 matches
2.36 goals/match▲Goals scored14/141.86 goals/match
0.64 goals/match▲Goals allowed14/141.21 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.9 shots/match▲Shots14/1412.4 shots/match
4.93 shots/matchShots on target14/144.86 shots/match
57%Possession14/1456.9%
5.79 corners/matchCorners14/145 corners/match
0.93 cards/matchCards14/143.14 cards/match
10 fouls/matchFouls14/1411.6 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/18.06 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples29 / 28home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 1 Mar 2026, 20:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsArsenalChelsea
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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