PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Sun, 1 Mar 2026, 14:00 UTCFull timeAmex StadiumFull-time recap
2–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricBrightonNottingham Forest
Shots14 shots/match▲13 shots/match
Shots on target7 shots/match▲4 shots/match
Possession54%46%
Corners4 corners/match4 corners/match
Fouls12 fouls/match13 fouls/match
Yellow cards3 cards/match1 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Nottingham Forest's last-five shots average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Nottingham Forest's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Nottingham Forest's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Nottingham Forest's last-five shots average is above their season average.

18.2 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season13 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots18.2 shots/match13 shots/match12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Nottingham Forest have a visible away split

moderate

Nottingham Forest's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

10.5 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season13 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots10.5 shots/match13 shots/match12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Brighton
0Draws
0Nottingham Forest
Nottingham Forest — Brighton · Premier League0–2

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Brighton favored in 5 of 14 directional metrics · Nottingham Forest in 1 · 8 too close

1.36 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 28/280.93 goals/match
1.25 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 28/281.46 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
12.8 shots/matchShotsseason · 28/2813 shots/match
12.3 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 28/2812.6 shots/match
4.43 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 28/283.93 shots/match
3.96 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 28/284.18 shots/match
52.8%Possessionseason · 28/2848.3%
4.86 corners/matchCornersseason · 28/285.61 corners/match
4.71 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 28/284.61 corners/match
2.43 cards/matchCardsseason · 28/28▲1.46 cards/match
12 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 28/2811 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
21%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 28/2821%
79%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 28/2854%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Brighton62.5
Nottingham Forest42.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Brighton56.7
Nottingham Forest39.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Brighton62.5
Nottingham Forest43.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Brighton47.5
Nottingham Forest82.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Brighton86.2
Nottingham Forest33.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Brighton42.5
Nottingham Forest72.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Brighton63.1
Nottingham Forest60
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.6 goals/match
0.8 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.4 shots/matchShots5/5▲18.2 shots/match
4.2 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲4.6 shots/match
54%Possession5/546.6%
4.2 corners/matchCorners5/56.8 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards5/51.2 cards/match
13.2 fouls/matchFouls5/510.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.2 goals/match▲Goals scored10/100.8 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.3 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.9 shots/matchShots10/10▲14.8 shots/match
4.4 shots/match▲Shots on target10/104.1 shots/match
54.9%Possession10/1045.7%
4.9 corners/matchCorners10/106.1 corners/match
2.4 cards/matchCards10/101 cards/match
12 fouls/matchFouls10/1011.2 fouls/match

Window

Season

28 / 28 matches
1.36 goals/match▲Goals scored28/280.93 goals/match
1.25 goals/match▲Goals allowed28/281.46 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.8 shots/matchShots28/2813 shots/match
4.43 shots/match▲Shots on target28/283.93 shots/match
52.8%Possession28/2848.3%
4.86 corners/matchCorners28/285.61 corners/match
2.43 cards/matchCards28/281.46 cards/match
12 fouls/matchFouls28/2811 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

14 / 14 matches
1.57 goals/match▲Goals scored14/140.93 goals/match
1.07 goals/match▲Goals allowed14/141.57 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.8 shots/match▲Shots14/1410.5 shots/match
4.79 shots/match▲Shots on target14/143.93 shots/match
54.5%Possession14/1446.6%
5.21 corners/matchCorners14/144.79 corners/match
1.64 cards/matchCards14/141.64 cards/match
11.1 fouls/matchFouls14/1411.6 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.96 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples28 / 28home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 1 Mar 2026, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsBrightonNottingham Forest
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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