PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Sun, 1 Mar 2026, 14:00 UTCFull timeOld TraffordFull-time recap
2–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricManchester UnitedCrystal Palace
Shots20 shots/match▲8 shots/match
Shots on target11 shots/match▲3 shots/match
Possession61%39%
Corners7 corners/match1 corners/match
Fouls13 fouls/match12 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match2 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Crystal Palace's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. A second useful context is: Manchester United have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Crystal Palace have a visible away split

moderate

Crystal Palace's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

9.71 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season11.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots9.71 shots/match11.8 shots/match12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Manchester United have recorded the higher season possession share.

53.4%▲PossessionManchester United · Crystal Palace44.9%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 8.5 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricManchester UnitedCrystal PalaceBaseline
Possession53.4%44.9%50.1%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Manchester United
0Draws
0Crystal Palace
Crystal Palace — Manchester United · Premier League1–2

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Manchester United favored in 7 of 14 directional metrics · Crystal Palace in 2 · 5 too close

1.79 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 28/281.07 goals/match
1.36 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 28/28▲1.21 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
16 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 28/2811.8 shots/match
10.9 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 28/2811.5 shots/match
5.79 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 28/283.79 shots/match
3.61 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 28/284.29 shots/match
53.4%Possessionseason · 28/2844.9%
4.43 corners/matchCornersseason · 28/284.18 corners/match
4.93 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 28/284.86 corners/match
1.46 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 28/282.21 cards/match
9.39 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 28/2810.5 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
18%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 28/28▲36%
89%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 28/2871%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Manchester United67.5
Crystal Palace32.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Manchester United94.2
Crystal Palace30.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Manchester United75
Crystal Palace55.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Manchester United97.5
Crystal Palace77.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Manchester United6.2
Crystal Palace60
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Manchester United32.5
Crystal Palace17.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Manchester United57.5
Crystal Palace35
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.8 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.2 goals/match
0.8 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.2 shots/match▲Shots5/512.8 shots/match
6.6 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.2 shots/match
57%Possession5/553.6%
4.2 corners/matchCorners5/55.4 corners/match
1.8 cards/matchCards5/53.2 cards/match
8.4 fouls/matchFouls5/512.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.8 goals/match▲Goals scored10/100.9 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.7 shots/match▲Shots10/1011.6 shots/match
6.1 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.3 shots/match
53.7%Possession10/1047.6%
4.2 corners/matchCorners10/105 corners/match
1.2 cards/matchCards10/102.9 cards/match
9 fouls/matchFouls10/1011.6 fouls/match

Window

Season

28 / 28 matches
1.79 goals/match▲Goals scored28/281.07 goals/match
1.36 goals/matchGoals allowed28/28▲1.21 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
16 shots/match▲Shots28/2811.8 shots/match
5.79 shots/match▲Shots on target28/283.79 shots/match
53.4%Possession28/2844.9%
4.43 corners/matchCorners28/284.18 corners/match
1.46 cards/matchCards28/282.21 cards/match
9.39 fouls/matchFouls28/2810.5 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

14 / 14 matches
1.93 goals/match▲Goals scored14/141.14 goals/match
1.14 goals/matchGoals allowed14/141.14 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
17.6 shots/match▲Shots14/149.71 shots/match
6.79 shots/match▲Shots on target14/143.43 shots/match
52.8%Possession14/1443.4%
4.71 corners/matchCorners14/144 corners/match
1.64 cards/matchCards14/142.36 cards/match
10.6 fouls/matchFouls14/1410.9 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

5.75 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples28 / 28home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 1 Mar 2026, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsManchester UnitedCrystal Palace
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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