PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Wed, 4 Mar 2026, 20:15 UTCFull timeSt. James' ParkFull-time recap
2–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricNewcastleManchester United
Shots12 shots/match14 shots/match▲
Shots on target5 shots/match5 shots/match
Possession45%55%
Corners2 corners/match4 corners/match
Fouls15 fouls/match16 fouls/match
Yellow cards4 cards/match3 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Manchester United. A second useful context is: Newcastle's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Manchester United.

4.22 days▲Rest daysNewcastle · Manchester United3.26 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricNewcastleManchester UnitedBaseline
Rest days4.22 days3.26 days—
Matches last 14 days2 matches2 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Newcastle's recent record differs from the season

weak

Newcastle's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.45 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.8 goals/match1.45 goals/match1.35 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Newcastle
0Draws
1Manchester United
Manchester United — Newcastle · Premier League1–0

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Newcastle favored in 1 of 14 directional metrics · Manchester United in 7 · 6 too close

1.45 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 29/29▲1.76 goals/match
1.48 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 29/29▲1.38 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
13.3 shots/matchShotsseason · 29/29▲15.9 shots/match
11.4 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 29/2910.9 shots/match
4.72 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 29/29▲5.76 shots/match
4.21 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 29/29▲3.66 shots/match
53.2%Possessionseason · 29/2953.4%
6.69 corners/matchCornersseason · 29/294.41 corners/match
4.93 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 29/294.83 corners/match
1.86 cards/matchCardsseason · 29/29▲1.52 cards/match
9.9 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 29/299.62 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
24%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 29/2917%
76%Scoring frequencyseason · 29/29▲90%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Newcastle67.5
Manchester United72.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Newcastle67.5
Manchester United92.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Newcastle52.5
Manchester United71.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Newcastle57.5
Manchester United97.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Newcastle27.5
Manchester United5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Newcastle97.5
Manchester United22.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Newcastle62.5
Manchester United55
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.8 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.4 goals/match
2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲0.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.8 shots/matchShots5/515.4 shots/match
5.6 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲6.4 shots/match
51.4%Possession5/559.6%
7 corners/matchCorners5/54.4 corners/match
3.2 cards/matchCards5/52 cards/match
13.6 fouls/matchFouls5/510.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.6 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.8 goals/match
1.9 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.4 shots/matchShots10/10▲15.6 shots/match
5.1 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲6 shots/match
55.3%Possession10/1053.6%
7.5 corners/matchCorners10/103.8 corners/match
2.6 cards/matchCards10/101.5 cards/match
10.6 fouls/matchFouls10/109.7 fouls/match

Window

Season

29 / 29 matches
1.45 goals/matchGoals scored29/29▲1.76 goals/match
1.48 goals/matchGoals allowed29/29▲1.38 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.3 shots/matchShots29/29▲15.9 shots/match
4.72 shots/matchShots on target29/29▲5.76 shots/match
53.2%Possession29/2953.4%
6.69 corners/matchCorners29/294.41 corners/match
1.86 cards/matchCards29/291.52 cards/match
9.9 fouls/matchFouls29/299.62 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

15 / 15 matches
1.87 goals/match▲Goals scored15/151.6 goals/match
1.6 goals/matchGoals allowed15/151.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.4 shots/matchShots15/1514.4 shots/match
5.67 shots/match▲Shots on target15/154.8 shots/match
52.3%Possession15/1554.1%
7.07 corners/matchCorners15/154.13 corners/match
1.73 cards/matchCards15/151.4 cards/match
11.3 fouls/matchFouls15/158.73 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

4.22 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/13.26 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples29 / 29home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Thu, 5 Mar 2026, 00:15 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsNewcastleManchester United
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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