PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Wed, 4 Mar 2026, 19:30 UTCFull timeAmex StadiumFull-time recap
0–1Full-time recap

Arsenal

WDDWW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricBrightonArsenal
Shots11 shots/match▲7 shots/match
Shots on target3 shots/match▲2 shots/match
Possession60%40%
Corners4 corners/match3 corners/match
Fouls14 fouls/match12 fouls/match
Yellow cards4 cards/match1 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Brighton's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Brighton, Arsenal. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Brighton's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Brighton's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.31 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match1.31 goals/match1.35 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Brighton, Arsenal.

3.23 days▲Rest daysBrighton · Arsenal3.12 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricBrightonArsenalBaseline
Rest days3.23 days3.12 days—
Matches last 14 days2 matches3 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Brighton show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Brighton's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

12.8 shots/match▲ShotsBrighton · Arsenal14.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricBrightonArsenalBaseline
Shots12.8 shots/match14.3 shots/match12.6 shots/match
Shots against12.1 shots/match7.77 shots/match12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Brighton
0Draws
1Arsenal
Arsenal — Brighton · Premier League2–1

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Brighton favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · Arsenal in 10 · 4 too close

1.31 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 29/30▲1.97 goals/match
1.24 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 29/30▲0.73 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
12.8 shots/matchShotsseason · 29/30▲14.3 shots/match
12.1 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 29/30▲7.77 shots/match
4.38 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 29/30▲4.87 shots/match
3.9 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 29/30▲2.3 shots/match
53%Possessionseason · 29/3056.4%
4.83 corners/matchCornersseason · 29/305.77 corners/match
4.66 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 29/30▲3.27 corners/match
2.48 cards/matchCardsseason · 29/30▲1.33 cards/match
12.1 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 29/3010.2 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
21%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 29/30▲47%
76%Scoring frequencyseason · 29/30▲90%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Brighton62.5
Arsenal82.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Brighton54.2
Arsenal87.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Brighton63.3
Arsenal97.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Brighton42.5
Arsenal67.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Brighton87.5
Arsenal15
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Brighton42.5
Arsenal82.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Brighton62.5
Arsenal70
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
0.8 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2 goals/match
0.8 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.4 shots/matchShots5/5▲11.2 shots/match
4.4 shots/match▲Shots on target5/54 shots/match
55.2%Possession5/551.6%
4 corners/matchCorners5/54 corners/match
2.6 cards/matchCards5/51.2 cards/match
13.4 fouls/matchFouls5/510.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.9 goals/match
0.9 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲0.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.4 shots/matchShots10/10▲12.5 shots/match
4.1 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲4.4 shots/match
54.8%Possession10/1052.1%
4.8 corners/matchCorners10/105.8 corners/match
2.3 cards/matchCards10/101.3 cards/match
11.6 fouls/matchFouls10/1010.6 fouls/match

Window

Season

29 / 30 matches
1.31 goals/matchGoals scored29/30▲1.97 goals/match
1.24 goals/matchGoals allowed29/30▲0.73 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.8 shots/matchShots29/30▲14.3 shots/match
4.38 shots/matchShots on target29/30▲4.87 shots/match
53%Possession29/3056.4%
4.83 corners/matchCorners29/305.77 corners/match
2.48 cards/matchCards29/301.33 cards/match
12.1 fouls/matchFouls29/3010.2 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

15 / 16 matches
1.47 goals/matchGoals scored15/16▲1.63 goals/match
1.07 goals/matchGoals allowed15/16▲0.81 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.6 shots/match▲Shots15/1612.9 shots/match
4.67 shots/matchShots on target15/164.81 shots/match
54.9%Possession15/1655.9%
5.13 corners/matchCorners15/165.75 corners/match
1.8 cards/matchCards15/161.69 cards/match
11.3 fouls/matchFouls15/1610.3 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

3.23 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/13.12 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/13 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples29 / 30home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Wed, 4 Mar 2026, 23:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsBrightonArsenal
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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