PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Sat, 28 Feb 2026, 15:00 UTCFull timeTurf MoorFull-time recap

Burnley

DLLWD
3–4Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricBurnleyBrentford
Shots12 shots/match16 shots/match▲
Shots on target3 shots/match7 shots/match▲
Possession41%59%
Corners4 corners/match8 corners/match
Fouls9 fouls/match9 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match2 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Burnley's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Burnley's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Burnley's recent record differs from the season

weak

Burnley's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.14 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match1.14 goals/match1.36 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Burnley show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Burnley's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

9.21 shots/match▲ShotsBurnley · Brentford10.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricBurnleyBrentfordBaseline
Shots9.21 shots/match10.7 shots/match12.5 shots/match
Shots against16.5 shots/match12.5 shots/match12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Burnley
0Draws
1Brentford
Brentford — Burnley · Premier League3–1

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Burnley favored in 1 of 14 directional metrics · Brentford in 8 · 5 too close

1.14 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 28/28▲1.57 goals/match
2 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 28/28▲1.43 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
9.21 shots/matchShotsseason · 28/28▲10.7 shots/match
16.5 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 28/28▲12.5 shots/match
2.96 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 28/28▲4.11 shots/match
5.75 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 28/28▲4.04 shots/match
41.1%Possessionseason · 28/2847.1%
3.46 corners/matchCornersseason · 28/285.07 corners/match
5.93 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 28/28▲5.07 corners/match
1.82 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 28/282 cards/match
9.93 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 28/2811.1 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
11%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 28/28▲21%
68%Scoring frequencyseason · 28/2871%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Burnley2.5
Brentford37.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Burnley10
Brentford48.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Burnley2.5
Brentford53.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Burnley17.5
Brentford22.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Burnley32.5
Brentford62.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Burnley10
Brentford52.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Burnley9.4
Brentford50
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.4 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.8 goals/match
2.4 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11 shots/matchShots5/5▲11.6 shots/match
3 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲4 shots/match
43.8%Possession5/545.2%
3.6 corners/matchCorners5/54.8 corners/match
2.4 cards/matchCards5/52.4 cards/match
9.8 fouls/matchFouls5/511.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.3 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.6 goals/match
2.2 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
9.8 shots/matchShots10/10▲11.9 shots/match
2.8 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲4.1 shots/match
40.7%Possession10/1050.8%
2.9 corners/matchCorners10/105.4 corners/match
2.3 cards/matchCards10/102 cards/match
10.2 fouls/matchFouls10/1010.6 fouls/match

Window

Season

28 / 28 matches
1.14 goals/matchGoals scored28/28▲1.57 goals/match
2 goals/matchGoals allowed28/28▲1.43 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
9.21 shots/matchShots28/28▲10.7 shots/match
2.96 shots/matchShots on target28/28▲4.11 shots/match
41.1%Possession28/2847.1%
3.46 corners/matchCorners28/285.07 corners/match
1.82 cards/matchCards28/282 cards/match
9.93 fouls/matchFouls28/2811.1 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

14 / 14 matches
1.07 goals/matchGoals scored14/14▲1.43 goals/match
1.64 goals/match▲Goals allowed14/141.79 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.1 shots/matchShots14/149.93 shots/match
2.93 shots/matchShots on target14/14▲4.07 shots/match
42.9%Possession14/1448.5%
3.29 corners/matchCorners14/145.86 corners/match
1.5 cards/matchCards14/142.29 cards/match
9.57 fouls/matchFouls14/1411.1 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples28 / 28home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 28 Feb 2026, 19:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsBurnleyBrentford
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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