PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Wed, 4 Mar 2026, 19:30 UTCFull timeEtihad StadiumFull-time recap
2–2Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricManchester CityNottingham Forest
Shots21 shots/match▲9 shots/match
Shots on target7 shots/match▲4 shots/match
Possession70%30%
Corners6 corners/match1 corners/match
Fouls10 fouls/match6 fouls/match
Yellow cards0 cards/match▲4 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Nottingham Forest's last-five shots average is above their season average. A second useful context is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Nottingham Forest. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Nottingham Forest's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Nottingham Forest's last-five shots average is above their season average.

18.2 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season12.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots18.2 shots/match12.9 shots/match12.6 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Nottingham Forest.

4.08 days▲Rest daysManchester City · Nottingham Forest3.23 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricManchester CityNottingham ForestBaseline
Rest days4.08 days3.23 days—
Matches last 14 days2 matches2 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Nottingham Forest have a visible away split

moderate

Nottingham Forest's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

10.4 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season12.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots10.4 shots/match12.9 shots/match12.6 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Manchester City
0Draws
0Nottingham Forest
Nottingham Forest — Manchester City · Premier League1–2

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Manchester City favored in 9 of 14 directional metrics · Nottingham Forest in 1 · 4 too close

2.03 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 29/290.97 goals/match
0.93 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 29/291.48 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
14.4 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 29/2912.9 shots/match
10.1 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 29/2912.9 shots/match
5.21 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 29/293.93 shots/match
3.52 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 29/294.28 shots/match
59.6%Possessionseason · 29/2947.7%
5.34 corners/matchCornersseason · 29/295.45 corners/match
3.79 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 29/294.66 corners/match
1.86 cards/matchCardsseason · 29/29▲1.55 cards/match
10.1 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 29/2910.8 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
41%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 29/2921%
86%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 29/2955%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Manchester City92.5
Nottingham Forest42.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Manchester City92.5
Nottingham Forest39.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Manchester City92.5
Nottingham Forest36.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Manchester City47.5
Nottingham Forest82.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Manchester City32.5
Nottingham Forest36.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Manchester City67.5
Nottingham Forest72.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Manchester City67.5
Nottingham Forest60
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
2 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.8 goals/match
0.8 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
16 shots/matchShots5/5▲18.2 shots/match
6.2 shots/match▲Shots on target5/55.2 shots/match
60.2%Possession5/546%
4.4 corners/matchCorners5/56 corners/match
2.4 cards/matchCards5/51.6 cards/match
10.8 fouls/matchFouls5/511.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.6 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.3 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.9 shots/match▲Shots10/1013.6 shots/match
4.8 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.9 shots/match
61%Possession10/1041.7%
5 corners/matchCorners10/105.3 corners/match
2.3 cards/matchCards10/101.3 cards/match
10.8 fouls/matchFouls10/1010.7 fouls/match

Window

Season

29 / 29 matches
2.03 goals/match▲Goals scored29/290.97 goals/match
0.93 goals/match▲Goals allowed29/291.48 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.4 shots/match▲Shots29/2912.9 shots/match
5.21 shots/match▲Shots on target29/293.93 shots/match
59.6%Possession29/2947.7%
5.34 corners/matchCorners29/295.45 corners/match
1.86 cards/matchCards29/291.55 cards/match
10.1 fouls/matchFouls29/2910.8 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

15 / 15 matches
2.4 goals/match▲Goals scored15/151 goals/match
0.73 goals/match▲Goals allowed15/151.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
16.1 shots/match▲Shots15/1510.4 shots/match
6.27 shots/match▲Shots on target15/153.93 shots/match
59.8%Possession15/1545.5%
6.6 corners/matchCorners15/154.53 corners/match
1.47 cards/matchCards15/151.8 cards/match
10.4 fouls/matchFouls15/1511.2 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

4.08 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/13.23 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples29 / 29home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Wed, 4 Mar 2026, 23:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsManchester CityNottingham Forest
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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