PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Sat, 17 Jan 2026, 12:30 UTCFull timeOld TraffordFull-time recap
2–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricManchester UnitedManchester City
Shots11 shots/match▲7 shots/match
Shots on target7 shots/match▲1 shots/match
Possession32%68%
Corners1 corners/match6 corners/match
Fouls13 fouls/match8 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match▲3 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Manchester City's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Manchester City's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Manchester City's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Manchester City's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.05 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match2.05 goals/match1.44 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Manchester City have a visible away split

moderate

Manchester City's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

12 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season14.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots12 shots/match14.2 shots/match12.1 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Manchester United
0Draws
1Manchester City
Manchester City — Manchester United · Premier League3–0

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Manchester United favored in 4 of 14 directional metrics · Manchester City in 6 · 4 too close

1.73 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 22/22▲2.05 goals/match
1.45 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 22/22▲0.95 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
16.5 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 22/2214.2 shots/match
11 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 22/22▲9.27 shots/match
5.73 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 22/225.14 shots/match
3.64 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 22/22▲3.41 shots/match
53%Possessionseason · 22/2259.2%
4.59 corners/matchCornersseason · 22/225.68 corners/match
4.82 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 22/22▲3.68 corners/match
1.45 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 22/221.73 cards/match
9.64 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 22/229.59 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
14%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 22/22▲41%
86%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 22/2282%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Manchester United75
Manchester City92.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Manchester United94.2
Manchester City90.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Manchester United64.2
Manchester City92.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Manchester United97.5
Manchester City47.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Manchester United16.2
Manchester City28.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Manchester United35
Manchester City87.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Manchester United63.1
Manchester City70
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.4 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.8 goals/match
0.8 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
16.2 shots/match▲Shots5/514.6 shots/match
5.8 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.8 shots/match
48.2%Possession5/563.8%
4.2 corners/matchCorners5/56 corners/match
1 cards/matchCards5/52 cards/match
9.6 fouls/matchFouls5/59 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.9 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲2.1 goals/match
1.3 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
17.9 shots/match▲Shots10/1014.4 shots/match
6.4 shots/match▲Shots on target10/105.2 shots/match
53.9%Possession10/1061.5%
5 corners/matchCorners10/105.4 corners/match
1.5 cards/matchCards10/101.7 cards/match
10.4 fouls/matchFouls10/1010 fouls/match

Window

Season

22 / 22 matches
1.73 goals/matchGoals scored22/22▲2.05 goals/match
1.45 goals/matchGoals allowed22/22▲0.95 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
16.5 shots/match▲Shots22/2214.2 shots/match
5.73 shots/match▲Shots on target22/225.14 shots/match
53%Possession22/2259.2%
4.59 corners/matchCorners22/225.68 corners/match
1.45 cards/matchCards22/221.73 cards/match
9.64 fouls/matchFouls22/229.59 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

11 / 11 matches
1.82 goals/match▲Goals scored11/111.64 goals/match
1.18 goals/matchGoals allowed11/111.18 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
17.3 shots/match▲Shots11/1112 shots/match
6.18 shots/match▲Shots on target11/113.82 shots/match
51.9%Possession11/1159.1%
4.45 corners/matchCorners11/114.09 corners/match
1.64 cards/matchCards11/112 cards/match
10.6 fouls/matchFouls11/119.18 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

9.68 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/19.71 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples22 / 22home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 17 Jan 2026, 16:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsManchester UnitedManchester City
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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