PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Sat, 17 Jan 2026, 15:00 UTCFull timeStamford BridgeFull-time recap

Chelsea

DLDDL
2–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricChelseaBrentford
Shots6 shots/match15 shots/match▲
Shots on target2 shots/match5 shots/match▲
Possession46%54%
Corners3 corners/match9 corners/match
Fouls7 fouls/match10 fouls/match
Yellow cards3 cards/match2 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Brentford's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Chelsea have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Brentford's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Brentford's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.59 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.2 goals/match1.59 goals/match1.44 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Chelsea have recorded the higher season possession share.

57.2%▲PossessionChelsea · Brentford46.6%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 10.5 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricChelseaBrentfordBaseline
Possession57.2%46.6%51%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Chelsea
1Draws
0Brentford
Brentford — Chelsea · Premier League2–2

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Chelsea favored in 7 of 14 directional metrics · Brentford in 1 · 6 too close

1.64 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 22/221.59 goals/match
1.09 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 22/221.36 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
13.5 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 22/2210.5 shots/match
11.1 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 22/2212.3 shots/match
4.68 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 22/224.27 shots/match
3.68 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 22/224.09 shots/match
57.2%Possessionseason · 22/2246.6%
5.77 corners/matchCornersseason · 22/225.09 corners/match
4.55 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 22/224.73 corners/match
2.59 cards/matchCardsseason · 22/22▲1.95 cards/match
11.3 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 22/2211.1 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
41%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 22/2223%
91%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 22/2273%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Chelsea82.5
Brentford37.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Chelsea75.8
Brentford49.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Chelsea77.5
Brentford46.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Chelsea37.5
Brentford22.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Chelsea85
Brentford63.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Chelsea90
Brentford52.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Chelsea79.4
Brentford49.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.4 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2.2 goals/match
1.4 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.8 shots/matchShots5/5▲13.2 shots/match
3.4 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲5.4 shots/match
52.8%Possession5/553%
6.8 corners/matchCorners5/55.2 corners/match
3.2 cards/matchCards5/51.8 cards/match
9.6 fouls/matchFouls5/59.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.3 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.7 goals/match
1.3 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.5 shots/match▲Shots10/1010.4 shots/match
3.6 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲4.1 shots/match
54.5%Possession10/1051.6%
4.7 corners/matchCorners10/104.9 corners/match
2.8 cards/matchCards10/101.8 cards/match
11.3 fouls/matchFouls10/109.6 fouls/match

Window

Season

22 / 22 matches
1.64 goals/matchGoals scored22/221.59 goals/match
1.09 goals/match▲Goals allowed22/221.36 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.5 shots/match▲Shots22/2210.5 shots/match
4.68 shots/match▲Shots on target22/224.27 shots/match
57.2%Possession22/2246.6%
5.77 corners/matchCorners22/225.09 corners/match
2.59 cards/matchCards22/221.95 cards/match
11.3 fouls/matchFouls22/2211.1 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

11 / 11 matches
1.55 goals/match▲Goals scored11/111.09 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed11/111.82 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.4 shots/match▲Shots11/119.64 shots/match
4.55 shots/match▲Shots on target11/113.91 shots/match
58.5%Possession11/1149.6%
6.91 corners/matchCorners11/116.36 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards11/112.18 cards/match
10.8 fouls/matchFouls11/1111 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

9.81 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/19.81 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples22 / 22home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 17 Jan 2026, 19:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsChelseaBrentford
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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