PitchMath
UEFA Champions League · 2025Stamford Bridge

Chelsea 1–0 Pafos FC · UEFA Champions League

Chelsea

WWDWL
1–0Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Chelsea won 1–0.

Shots
214
Shots on target
72
Expected goals
1.680.15
Possession
71%29%

Full time

What the match recorded

Chelsea beat Pafos FC 1–0. Recorded in this match (Chelsea – Pafos FC): shots 21–4, shots on target 7–2, expected goals 1.68–0.15, possession 71%–29%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Pafos FC's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Pafos FC's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.92 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.6 goals/match0.92 goals/match1.5 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Pafos FC show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Pafos FC's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

14.4 shots/match ▲ShotsChelsea · Pafos FC9.33 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricChelseaPafos FCBaseline
Shots14.4 shots/match9.33 shots/match13.6 shots/match
Shots against8.43 shots/match20.1 shots/match13.3 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Chelsea have recorded the higher season possession share.

57.9% ●PossessionChelsea · Pafos FC38.3%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 19.5 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricChelseaPafos FCBaseline
Possession57.9%38.3%50.4%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots21 shots4 shotsChelsea 21 shots, Pafos FC 4 shots
  • Shots on target7 shots2 shotsChelsea 7 shots, Pafos FC 2 shots
  • Expected goals1.68 xG0.15 xGChelsea 1.68 xG, Pafos FC 0.15 xG
  • Possession71%29%Chelsea 71%, Pafos FC 29%
  • Corners15 corners2 cornersChelsea 15 corners, Pafos FC 2 corners
  • Fouls6 fouls10 foulsChelsea 6 fouls, Pafos FC 10 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Vlad Dragomir · Pafos FC · 81′ · 0.00 xG · on targetMoisés Caicedo · Chelsea · 68′ · 0.01 xG · on targetPedro Neto · Chelsea · 8′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedPedro Neto · Chelsea · 11′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedReece James · Chelsea · 16′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedPedro Neto · Chelsea · 60′ · 0.02 xG · on targetJajá · Pafos FC · 31′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedLiam Delap · Chelsea · 37′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedReece James · Chelsea · 39′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedEnzo Fernández · Chelsea · 42′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMalo Gusto · Chelsea · 57′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAlejandro Garnacho · Chelsea · 68′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedNany Dimata · Pafos FC · 80′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedNany Dimata · Pafos FC · 90′ · 0.05 xG · on targetMoisés Caicedo · Chelsea · 42′ · 0.06 xG · on targetMalo Gusto · Chelsea · 42′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedBenoît Badiashile · Chelsea · 35′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedEstêvão · Chelsea · 53′ · 0.09 xG · on targetAlejandro Garnacho · Chelsea · 58′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedMoisés Caicedo · Chelsea · 35′ · 0.11 xG · on targetAlejandro Garnacho · Chelsea · 67′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedEstêvão · Chelsea · 62′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedJorrel Hato · Chelsea · 45′ · 0.16 xG · on targetLiam Delap · Chelsea · 35′ · 0.20 xG · off target or blockedMoisés Caicedo · Chelsea · 78′ · 0.22 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Chelsea: 21 shots, 7 on target, 1.65 xG. Pafos FC: 4 shots, 2 on target, 0.14 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Moisés Caicedo · Chelsea · 78′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Chelsea 1.65 xG · Pafos FC 0.14 xG.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Chelsea favored in 9 of 11 directional metrics · Pafos FC in 2

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Chelsea7 matchesPafos FC13 matches
2 goals/match ▲Goals scored7/130.92 goals/match
1.14 goals/matchGoals allowed7/13▲ 1 goal/match
1.64 xG/match ▲Expected goals7/70.83 xG/match
14.4 shots/match ▲Shots7/99.33 shots/match
5.43 shots/match ▲Shots on target7/93.11 shots/match
57.9% ●Possession7/938.3%
6.86 corners/match ●Corners7/92.89 corners/match
13.1 fouls/matchFouls7/912.6 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples7 / 13home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Thu, 22 Jan 2026, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in UEFA Champions League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsChelseaPafos FC
CompetitionUEFA Champions LeagueUEFA Champions League 2025/26
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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