UEFA Champions League · 2025Wed, 21 Jan 2026, 20:00 UTCFull timeStamford BridgeFull-time recap

Chelsea

WWDWL

1–0Full-time recap

Pafos FC

LDWDL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Chelsea	Pafos FC
Shots	21 shots/match▲	4 shots/match
Shots on target	7 shots/match▲	2 shots/match
Expected goals	1.68 xG/match▲	0.15 xG/match
Possession	71%	29%
Corners	15 corners/match	2 corners/match
Fouls	6 fouls/match	10 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Chelsea: 21 shots, 7 on target, 1.65 xG. Pafos FC: 4 shots, 2 on target, 0.14 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Chelsea 1.65 xG · Pafos FC 0.14 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Pafos FC's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Pafos FC's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. Limitation: Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Pafos FC's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Pafos FC's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.92 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	0.6 goals/match	0.92 goals/match	1.5 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Pafos FC show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Pafos FC's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

14.4 shots/match▲ShotsChelsea · Pafos FC9.33 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Chelsea	Pafos FC	Baseline
Shots	14.4 shots/match	9.33 shots/match	13.6 shots/match
Shots against	8.43 shots/match	20.1 shots/match	13.3 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Chelsea have recorded the higher season possession share.

57.9%▲PossessionChelsea · Pafos FC38.3%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 19.5 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Chelsea	Pafos FC	Baseline
Possession	57.9%	38.3%	50.4%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Chelsea favored in 9 of 14 directional metrics · Pafos FC in 2 · 3 too close

2 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 7/130.92 goals/match

1.14 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 7/13▲1 goals/match

1.64 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 7/70.83 xG/match

1.18 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 7/72.17 xG/match

14.4 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 7/99.33 shots/match

8.43 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 7/920.1 shots/match

5.43 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 7/93.11 shots/match

2.86 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 7/95.78 shots/match

57.9%Possessionseason · 7/938.3%

6.86 corners/matchCornersseason · 7/92.89 corners/match

2.43 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 7/97.89 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

13.1 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 7/912.6 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

43%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 7/13▲46%

100%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 7/1369%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Chelsea89.3

Pafos FC3.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 69%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Chelsea65.2

Pafos FC8.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 80%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Chelsea90.2

Pafos FC36.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 80%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Chelsea36.9

Pafos FC29.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 69%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Chelsea79.8

Pafos FC72.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 35%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Chelsea95.2

Pafos FC3.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 69%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Chelsea75

Pafos FC21.4

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 69%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

2.4 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.6 goals/match

1 goals/matchGoals allowed5/51 goals/match

1.97 xG/match▲Expected goals5/51.02 xG/match

16.8 shots/match▲Shots5/59.4 shots/match

6.4 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.4 shots/match

61%Possession5/537.6%

8.6 corners/matchCorners5/53.4 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

14.4 fouls/matchFouls5/510.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

7 / 10 matches

2 goals/match▲Goals scored7/100.9 goals/match

1.14 goals/matchGoals allowed7/101.2 goals/match

1.64 xG/match▲Expected goals7/70.83 xG/match

14.4 shots/match▲Shots7/99.33 shots/match

5.43 shots/match▲Shots on target7/93.11 shots/match

57.9%Possession7/938.3%

6.86 corners/matchCorners7/92.89 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

13.1 fouls/matchFouls7/912.6 fouls/match

Window

Season

7 / 13 matches

2 goals/match▲Goals scored7/130.92 goals/match

1.14 goals/matchGoals allowed7/13▲1 goals/match

1.64 xG/match▲Expected goals7/70.83 xG/match

14.4 shots/match▲Shots7/99.33 shots/match

5.43 shots/match▲Shots on target7/93.11 shots/match

57.9%Possession7/938.3%

6.86 corners/matchCorners7/92.89 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

13.1 fouls/matchFouls7/912.6 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

4 / 7 matches

2.5 goals/match▲Goals scored4/70.57 goals/match

0.25 goals/match▲Goals allowed4/70.57 goals/match

2.04 xG/match▲Expected goals4/40.87 xG/match

16.5 shots/match▲Shots4/59 shots/match

6.5 shots/match▲Shots on target4/53 shots/match

62.3%Possession4/534.6%

8.25 corners/matchCorners4/52.8 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

13 fouls/matchFouls4/511.8 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

43 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/142 days

0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited

Season samples7 / 13home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.

Analysis cutoff: Thu, 22 Jan 2026, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4

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Match statistics

Shot map

Expected-goals timeline

What the record shows

Pafos FC's recent record differs from the season

Pafos FC show a distinct attacking-volume record

The teams have contrasting possession records

Values, percentiles and samples

How the teams compare

Possession control

Attacking volume

Defensive resistance

Directness proxy

Physicality

Set-piece relevance

Tempo and pressure proxy

Season, last 10 and last 5

Last 5

Last 10

Season

Home and away samples

Home team at home / away team away

Rest and recent workload

How much supports this analysis

Known unknowns

Related matches

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