PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Sun, 25 Jan 2026, 14:00 UTCFull timeSelhurst ParkFull-time recap
1–3Full-time recap

Chelsea

LDDLW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricCrystal PalaceChelsea
Shots13 shots/match▲10 shots/match
Shots on target7 shots/match▲6 shots/match
Possession43%57%
Corners4 corners/match5 corners/match
Fouls11 fouls/match10 fouls/match
Yellow cards4 cards/match2 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Crystal Palace's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Chelsea have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Crystal Palace's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Crystal Palace's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.04 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.6 goals/match1.04 goals/match1.41 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Chelsea have recorded the higher season possession share.

43%▲PossessionCrystal Palace · Chelsea57.2%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 14.1 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricCrystal PalaceChelseaBaseline
Possession43%57.2%50.2%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Crystal Palace
1Draws
0Chelsea
Chelsea — Crystal Palace · Premier League0–0

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Crystal Palace favored in 1 of 14 directional metrics · Chelsea in 8 · 5 too close

1.04 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 23/23▲1.7 goals/match
1.22 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 23/23▲1.09 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
11.5 shots/matchShotsseason · 23/23▲13.4 shots/match
11.6 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 23/2311.2 shots/match
3.91 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 23/23▲4.74 shots/match
4.17 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 23/23▲3.83 shots/match
43%Possessionseason · 23/2357.2%
3.91 corners/matchCornersseason · 23/235.74 corners/match
5.04 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 23/23▲4.52 corners/match
2 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 23/232.57 cards/match
10.1 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 23/2311.2 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
35%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 23/23▲39%
65%Scoring frequencyseason · 23/23▲91%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Crystal Palace12.5
Chelsea82.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Crystal Palace31.7
Chelsea77.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Crystal Palace54.2
Chelsea78.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Crystal Palace82.5
Chelsea37.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Crystal Palace50
Chelsea87.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Crystal Palace17.5
Chelsea87.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Crystal Palace35
Chelsea80
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
0.6 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.8 goals/match
1.6 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.4 shots/matchShots5/5▲11 shots/match
3.4 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲4 shots/match
41.6%Possession5/551.6%
4.6 corners/matchCorners5/56.6 corners/match
2.6 cards/matchCards5/52.6 cards/match
10.6 fouls/matchFouls5/58.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
0.7 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.5 goals/match
1.7 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.3 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.6 shots/matchShots10/10▲12.4 shots/match
3.4 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲3.8 shots/match
43.5%Possession10/1056.4%
4 corners/matchCorners10/104.9 corners/match
2.1 cards/matchCards10/102.8 cards/match
9.5 fouls/matchFouls10/1011.1 fouls/match

Window

Season

23 / 23 matches
1.04 goals/matchGoals scored23/23▲1.7 goals/match
1.22 goals/matchGoals allowed23/23▲1.09 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.5 shots/matchShots23/23▲13.4 shots/match
3.91 shots/matchShots on target23/23▲4.74 shots/match
43%Possession23/2357.2%
3.91 corners/matchCorners23/235.74 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards23/232.57 cards/match
10.1 fouls/matchFouls23/2311.2 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

12 / 12 matches
0.92 goals/matchGoals scored12/12▲1.83 goals/match
1.25 goals/matchGoals allowed12/12▲1.17 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.2 shots/match▲Shots12/1212.5 shots/match
4.33 shots/matchShots on target12/12▲4.92 shots/match
43.8%Possession12/1256%
3.83 corners/matchCorners12/124.67 corners/match
1.83 cards/matchCards12/123.08 cards/match
9.33 fouls/matchFouls12/1211.6 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.96 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.96 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples23 / 23home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 25 Jan 2026, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsCrystal PalaceChelsea
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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