Premier League · 2025Sun, 25 Jan 2026, 14:00 UTCFull timeSt. James' ParkFull-time recap

Newcastle

LWWWD

0–2Full-time recap

Aston Villa

WLWDL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Newcastle	Aston Villa
Shots	15 shots/match▲	14 shots/match
Shots on target	4 shots/match	8 shots/match▲
Possession	61%	39%
Corners	6 corners/match	5 corners/match
Fouls	7 fouls/match	12 fouls/match
Yellow cards	1 cards/match▲	2 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Newcastle's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Newcastle's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Newcastle's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.39 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1.8 goals/match	1.39 goals/match	1.41 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Newcastle

1Draws

0Aston Villa

16 Aug 2025Aston Villa — Newcastle · Premier League0–0

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Newcastle favored in 3 of 14 directional metrics · Aston Villa in 3 · 8 too close

1.39 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 23/23▲1.52 goals/match

1.26 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 23/23▲1.09 goals/match

—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—

—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—

13 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 23/2312 shots/match

10.8 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 23/2312.9 shots/match

4.65 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 23/234.48 shots/match

3.96 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 23/234.17 shots/match

53.9%Possessionseason · 23/2352.8%

6.43 corners/matchCornersseason · 23/235.04 corners/match

5.22 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 23/23▲4.74 corners/match

1.52 cards/matchCardsseason · 23/231.57 cards/match

9.22 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 23/239.87 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

30%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 23/2330%

70%Scoring frequencyseason · 23/2370%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Newcastle77.5

Aston Villa72.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Newcastle60

Aston Villa61.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Newcastle71.7

Aston Villa49.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Newcastle47.5

Aston Villa27.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Newcastle11.2

Aston Villa23.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Newcastle97.5

Aston Villa47.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Newcastle58.8

Aston Villa46.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

1.8 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.2 goals/match

1.2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/51.2 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

15.4 shots/match▲Shots5/513.8 shots/match

6 shots/match▲Shots on target5/54.6 shots/match

60.4%Possession5/557.6%

6.6 corners/matchCorners5/54.6 corners/match

1.6 cards/matchCards5/51.4 cards/match

6.8 fouls/matchFouls5/59.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

1.5 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.9 goals/match

1.3 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.4 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

14.6 shots/match▲Shots10/1012.8 shots/match

5.4 shots/matchShots on target10/105.5 shots/match

59.2%Possession10/1051.8%

7.6 corners/matchCorners10/104.7 corners/match

1.8 cards/matchCards10/101.5 cards/match

7.6 fouls/matchFouls10/109.3 fouls/match

Window

Season

23 / 23 matches

1.39 goals/matchGoals scored23/23▲1.52 goals/match

1.26 goals/matchGoals allowed23/23▲1.09 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

13 shots/match▲Shots23/2312 shots/match

4.65 shots/matchShots on target23/234.48 shots/match

53.9%Possession23/2352.8%

6.43 corners/matchCorners23/235.04 corners/match

1.52 cards/matchCards23/231.57 cards/match

9.22 fouls/matchFouls23/239.87 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

12 / 12 matches

1.83 goals/match▲Goals scored12/121.42 goals/match

1.42 goals/matchGoals allowed12/12▲1.33 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

14.3 shots/match▲Shots12/1211.7 shots/match

5.75 shots/match▲Shots on target12/124.08 shots/match

51.7%Possession12/1253.1%

7.33 corners/matchCorners12/124.92 corners/match

1.42 cards/matchCards12/121.83 cards/match

10.4 fouls/matchFouls12/1210 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.9 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples23 / 23home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 25 Jan 2026, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4

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