UEFA Champions League · 2025Wed, 28 Jan 2026, 20:00 UTCFull timeParc des PrincesFull-time recap

Paris Saint Germain

WLWDL

1–1Full-time recap

Newcastle United

WWLDW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Paris Saint Germain	Newcastle United
Shots	25 shots/match▲	10 shots/match
Shots on target	7 shots/match▲	4 shots/match
Expected goals	2.58 xG/match▲	1 xG/match
Possession	67%	33%
Corners	5 corners/match	1 corners/match
Fouls	8 fouls/match	8 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Paris Saint Germain: 25 shots, 7 on target, 2.60 xG. Newcastle United: 10 shots, 4 on target, 1.00 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Paris Saint Germain 2.60 xG · Newcastle United 1.00 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Paris Saint Germain's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Paris Saint Germain's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Paris Saint Germain's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Paris Saint Germain's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.63 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1.6 goals/match	2.63 goals/match	1.5 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Paris Saint Germain show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Paris Saint Germain's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

21.5 shots/match▲ShotsParis Saint Germain · Newcastle United13 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Paris Saint Germain	Newcastle United	Baseline
Shots	21.5 shots/match	13 shots/match	13.4 shots/match
Shots against	9.25 shots/match	15.1 shots/match	13.1 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Paris Saint Germain have recorded the higher season possession share.

67.9%▲PossessionParis Saint Germain · Newcastle United47.8%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 20.1 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Paris Saint Germain	Newcastle United	Baseline
Possession	67.9%	47.8%	50.4%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Paris Saint Germain favored in 7 of 14 directional metrics · Newcastle United in 4 · 3 too close

2.63 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 8/82.13 goals/match

1.38 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 8/8▲0.88 goals/match

2.2 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 8/81.91 xG/match

1.27 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 8/8▲1.16 xG/match

21.5 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 8/813 shots/match

9.25 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 8/815.1 shots/match

7.63 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 8/86 shots/match

3.38 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 8/85 shots/match

67.9%Possessionseason · 8/847.8%

6.75 corners/matchCornersseason · 8/85 corners/match

2.63 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 8/86.25 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

8.13 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 8/88.63 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

25%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 8/8▲50%

88%Scoring frequencyseason · 8/8▲100%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Paris Saint Germain98.8

Newcastle United31

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Paris Saint Germain93.3

Newcastle United65.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Paris Saint Germain77.4

Newcastle United51.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Paris Saint Germain75

Newcastle United53.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Paris Saint Germain3.6

Newcastle United6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Paris Saint Germain94

Newcastle United61.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Paris Saint Germain71.1

Newcastle United46.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

1.6 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.8 goals/match

1.6 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1 goals/match

1.93 xG/match▲Expected goals5/51.65 xG/match

22.2 shots/match▲Shots5/512.4 shots/match

6.6 shots/match▲Shots on target5/55.2 shots/match

70.4%Possession5/547.4%

7 corners/matchCorners5/53.4 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

8 fouls/matchFouls5/56.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

8 / 8 matches

2.63 goals/match▲Goals scored8/82.13 goals/match

1.38 goals/matchGoals allowed8/8▲0.88 goals/match

2.2 xG/match▲Expected goals8/81.91 xG/match

21.5 shots/match▲Shots8/813 shots/match

7.63 shots/match▲Shots on target8/86 shots/match

67.9%Possession8/847.8%

6.75 corners/matchCorners8/85 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

8.13 fouls/matchFouls8/88.63 fouls/match

Window

Season

8 / 8 matches

2.63 goals/match▲Goals scored8/82.13 goals/match

1.38 goals/matchGoals allowed8/8▲0.88 goals/match

2.2 xG/match▲Expected goals8/81.91 xG/match

21.5 shots/match▲Shots8/813 shots/match

7.63 shots/match▲Shots on target8/86 shots/match

67.9%Possession8/847.8%

6.75 corners/matchCorners8/85 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

8.13 fouls/matchFouls8/88.63 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

4 / 4 matches

2.75 goals/match▲Goals scored4/42 goals/match

1.5 goals/matchGoals allowed4/4▲1.25 goals/match

2.46 xG/match▲Expected goals4/41.82 xG/match

21.8 shots/match▲Shots4/414 shots/match

8.75 shots/match▲Shots on target4/46 shots/match

68%Possession4/445.3%

6.25 corners/matchCorners4/44.25 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

7.5 fouls/matchFouls4/46.75 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

8 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited

Season samples8 / 8home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.

Analysis cutoff: Thu, 29 Jan 2026, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4