PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Sat, 31 Jan 2026, 20:00 UTCFull timeAnfieldFull-time recap
4–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricLiverpoolNewcastle
Shots17 shots/match▲8 shots/match
Shots on target7 shots/match▲2 shots/match
Possession54%46%
Corners7 corners/match11 corners/match
Fouls11 fouls/match7 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match▲3 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Liverpool's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. A second useful context is: Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Liverpool have a visible home split

moderate

Liverpool's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

18.2 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season15.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots18.2 shots/match15.5 shots/match12 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Both teams have elevated corners records

weak

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

5.63 corners/match▲CornersLiverpool · Newcastle6.63 corners/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricLiverpoolNewcastleBaseline
Corners5.63 corners/match6.63 corners/match5.08 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Liverpool
0Draws
0Newcastle
Newcastle — Liverpool · Premier League2–3

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Liverpool favored in 5 of 14 directional metrics · Newcastle in 0 · 9 too close

1.63 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 24/241.38 goals/match
1.38 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 24/241.38 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
15.5 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 24/2412.8 shots/match
10.5 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 24/2411.1 shots/match
4.42 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 24/244.54 shots/match
3.58 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 24/244.08 shots/match
61.4%Possessionseason · 24/2453.5%
5.63 corners/matchCornersseason · 24/246.63 corners/match
4.54 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 24/245.29 corners/match
1.63 cards/matchCardsseason · 24/241.58 cards/match
9.33 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 24/249.13 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
29%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 24/2429%
83%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 24/2471%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Liverpool97.5
Newcastle77.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Liverpool75.8
Newcastle59.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Liverpool75
Newcastle62.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Liverpool72.5
Newcastle47.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Liverpool20
Newcastle15
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Liverpool82.5
Newcastle97.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Liverpool61.2
Newcastle58.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.8 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.4 goals/match
1.4 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
16.2 shots/match▲Shots5/513 shots/match
4.8 shots/matchShots on target5/54.6 shots/match
60.8%Possession5/559.2%
7 corners/matchCorners5/58 corners/match
1.2 cards/matchCards5/52 cards/match
7.8 fouls/matchFouls5/57.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.8 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.4 goals/match
1.2 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.5 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.6 shots/match▲Shots10/1013.5 shots/match
4.7 shots/matchShots on target10/104.9 shots/match
60.8%Possession10/1058.5%
6.1 corners/matchCorners10/107.6 corners/match
1.3 cards/matchCards10/102.1 cards/match
7.8 fouls/matchFouls10/107.8 fouls/match

Window

Season

24 / 24 matches
1.63 goals/match▲Goals scored24/241.38 goals/match
1.38 goals/matchGoals allowed24/241.38 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.5 shots/match▲Shots24/2412.8 shots/match
4.42 shots/matchShots on target24/244.54 shots/match
61.4%Possession24/2453.5%
5.63 corners/matchCorners24/246.63 corners/match
1.63 cards/matchCards24/241.58 cards/match
9.33 fouls/matchFouls24/249.13 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

12 / 12 matches
1.67 goals/match▲Goals scored12/120.92 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed12/121.33 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
18.2 shots/match▲Shots12/1211.3 shots/match
5.33 shots/match▲Shots on target12/123.33 shots/match
61.8%Possession12/1255.4%
5.92 corners/matchCorners12/125.92 corners/match
1.08 cards/matchCards12/121.75 cards/match
9.08 fouls/matchFouls12/127.83 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.1 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.25 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples24 / 24home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 1 Feb 2026, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsLiverpoolNewcastle
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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