PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Sun, 1 Feb 2026, 19:45 UTCFull timeStade de la MeinauFull-time recap
1–2Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricStrasbourgParis Saint Germain
Shots9 shots/match13 shots/match▲
Shots on target4 shots/match4 shots/match
Possession32%68%
Corners5 corners/match6 corners/match
Fouls8 fouls/match6 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match0 cards/match▲

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Achraf Hakimi · Paris Saint Germain · 62′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedWarren Zaïre-Emery · Paris Saint Germain · 65′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedAchraf Hakimi · Paris Saint Germain · 33′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJulio Enciso · Strasbourg · 41′ · 0.03 xG · on targetOusmane Dembélé · Paris Saint Germain · 65′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedDésiré Doué · Paris Saint Germain · 56′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedKang-in Lee · Paris Saint Germain · 64′ · 0.04 xG · on targetMartial Godo · Strasbourg · 90′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedDiego Moreira · Strasbourg · 14′ · 0.06 xG · on targetSenny Mayulu · Paris Saint Germain · 16′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedAchraf Hakimi · Paris Saint Germain · 43′ · 0.06 xG · on targetJoão Neves · Paris Saint Germain · 5′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedAbdoul Ouattara · Strasbourg · 52′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedWillian Pacho · Paris Saint Germain · 16′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedAbdoul Ouattara · Strasbourg · 17′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedGuéla Doué · Strasbourg · 84′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedSenny Mayulu · Paris Saint Germain · 22′ · 0.17 xG · goalAchraf Hakimi · Paris Saint Germain · 57′ · 0.24 xG · off target or blockedNuno Mendes · Paris Saint Germain · 81′ · 0.25 xG · goalGuéla Doué · Strasbourg · 27′ · 0.43 xG · goalMartial Godo · Strasbourg · 90′ · 0.54 xG · off target or blockedJoaquin Panichelli · Strasbourg · 20′ · 0.82 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Strasbourg: 9 shots, 4 on target, 2.29 xG. Paris Saint Germain: 13 shots, 4 on target, 1.13 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Guéla Doué · Strasbourg · 27′Senny Mayulu · Paris Saint Germain · 22′Nuno Mendes · Paris Saint Germain · 81′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Strasbourg 2.29 xG · Paris Saint Germain 1.13 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Paris Saint Germain's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. A second useful context is: Paris Saint Germain have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Paris Saint Germain show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Paris Saint Germain's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

11.2 shots/match▲ShotsStrasbourg · Paris Saint Germain17.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricStrasbourgParis Saint GermainBaseline
Shots11.2 shots/match17.3 shots/match11.8 shots/match
Shots against11.1 shots/match8.45 shots/match11.9 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Paris Saint Germain have recorded the higher season possession share.

51.7%▲PossessionStrasbourg · Paris Saint Germain69.2%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 17.5 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricStrasbourgParis Saint GermainBaseline
Possession51.7%69.2%49%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Strasbourg
1Draws
0Paris Saint Germain
Paris Saint Germain — Strasbourg · Ligue 13–3

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Strasbourg favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · Paris Saint Germain in 10 · 4 too close

1.65 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 20/20▲2.15 goals/match
1.25 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 20/20▲0.8 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
11.2 shots/matchShotsseason · 20/20▲17.3 shots/match
11.1 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 20/20▲8.45 shots/match
4.4 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 20/20▲6.75 shots/match
3.9 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 20/20▲2.9 shots/match
51.7%Possessionseason · 20/2069.2%
3.85 corners/matchCornersseason · 20/206.2 corners/match
3.95 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 20/20▲3 corners/match
2.25 cards/matchCardsseason · 20/20▲1.1 cards/match
11.6 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 20/2010.1 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
35%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 20/20▲50%
85%Scoring frequencyseason · 20/20▲90%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Strasbourg58.3
Paris Saint Germain97.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Strasbourg55.6
Paris Saint Germain95.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Strasbourg63.9
Paris Saint Germain96.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Strasbourg13.9
Paris Saint Germain63.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Strasbourg48.7
Paris Saint Germain4.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Strasbourg19.4
Paris Saint Germain97.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Strasbourg36.1
Paris Saint Germain74.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.6 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2.2 goals/match
1 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲0.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.6 shots/matchShots5/5▲15.2 shots/match
4.6 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲6.8 shots/match
50.2%Possession5/565.4%
5.6 corners/matchCorners5/55.6 corners/match
1.6 cards/matchCards5/50.8 cards/match
10.2 fouls/matchFouls5/59.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.2 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲2.3 goals/match
1.3 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲0.7 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.7 shots/matchShots10/10▲18.1 shots/match
3.4 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲7 shots/match
52.6%Possession10/1066.4%
4.2 corners/matchCorners10/106.2 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards10/101.2 cards/match
10.7 fouls/matchFouls10/1010.1 fouls/match

Window

Season

20 / 20 matches
1.65 goals/matchGoals scored20/20▲2.15 goals/match
1.25 goals/matchGoals allowed20/20▲0.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.2 shots/matchShots20/20▲17.3 shots/match
4.4 shots/matchShots on target20/20▲6.75 shots/match
51.7%Possession20/2069.2%
3.85 corners/matchCorners20/206.2 corners/match
2.25 cards/matchCards20/201.1 cards/match
11.6 fouls/matchFouls20/2010.1 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

10 / 11 matches
1.7 goals/matchGoals scored10/11▲1.91 goals/match
0.7 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/111.09 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.3 shots/matchShots10/11▲14.7 shots/match
5.3 shots/matchShots on target10/11▲6.09 shots/match
51%Possession10/1168.6%
4.8 corners/matchCorners10/115.73 corners/match
1.8 cards/matchCards10/111.09 cards/match
10.2 fouls/matchFouls10/119.82 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/19.03 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples20 / 20home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 1 Feb 2026, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsStrasbourgParis Saint Germain
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

Make a graphic from this match

Creator Studio builds a branded post from this match's recorded data, with its evidence grade and source cutoff carried into the export.

Create a graphic from this match