PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Sun, 25 Jan 2026, 14:00 UTCFull timeBrentford Community StadiumFull-time recap
0–2Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricBrentfordNottingham Forest
Shots10 shots/match▲7 shots/match
Shots on target1 shots/match2 shots/match▲
Possession66%34%
Corners6 corners/match5 corners/match
Fouls11 fouls/match10 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match0 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Nottingham Forest's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. A second useful context is: Brentford's last-five shots average is above their season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Nottingham Forest have a visible away split

moderate

Nottingham Forest's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

9.83 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season11.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots9.83 shots/match11.9 shots/match12 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Brentford's recent record differs from the season

weak

Brentford's last-five shots average is above their season average.

12.2 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season10.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots12.2 shots/match10.5 shots/match12 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Brentford
0Draws
1Nottingham Forest
Nottingham Forest — Brentford · Premier League3–1

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Brentford favored in 5 of 14 directional metrics · Nottingham Forest in 2 · 7 too close

1.52 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 23/231 goals/match
1.39 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 23/231.48 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
10.5 shots/matchShotsseason · 23/23▲11.9 shots/match
12.1 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 23/2312.7 shots/match
4.13 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 23/233.78 shots/match
4 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 23/234.13 shots/match
47.5%Possessionseason · 23/2348.7%
5.13 corners/matchCornersseason · 23/235.35 corners/match
4.74 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 23/234.74 corners/match
1.91 cards/matchCardsseason · 23/23▲1.52 cards/match
11.1 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 23/2311 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
22%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 23/2322%
70%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 23/2352%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Brentford37.5
Nottingham Forest42.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Brentford45.8
Nottingham Forest29.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Brentford50
Nottingham Forest35.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Brentford17.5
Nottingham Forest57.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Brentford65
Nottingham Forest41.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Brentford52.5
Nottingham Forest65
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Brentford50
Nottingham Forest51.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.4 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51 goals/match
1.2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/51.2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.2 shots/match▲Shots5/511.4 shots/match
4.2 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.6 shots/match
56.4%Possession5/544.8%
6 corners/matchCorners5/55.4 corners/match
1.6 cards/matchCards5/50.8 cards/match
10 fouls/matchFouls5/511.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.4 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101 goals/match
1.2 goals/matchGoals allowed10/101.2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10 shots/matchShots10/10▲10.8 shots/match
3.8 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.4 shots/match
53%Possession10/1046.5%
5 corners/matchCorners10/105.2 corners/match
1.9 cards/matchCards10/101.5 cards/match
10 fouls/matchFouls10/1010.7 fouls/match

Window

Season

23 / 23 matches
1.52 goals/match▲Goals scored23/231 goals/match
1.39 goals/match▲Goals allowed23/231.48 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.5 shots/matchShots23/23▲11.9 shots/match
4.13 shots/match▲Shots on target23/233.78 shots/match
47.5%Possession23/2348.7%
5.13 corners/matchCorners23/235.35 corners/match
1.91 cards/matchCards23/231.52 cards/match
11.1 fouls/matchFouls23/2311 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

12 / 12 matches
1.92 goals/match▲Goals scored12/120.92 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed12/121.42 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.3 shots/match▲Shots12/129.83 shots/match
4.33 shots/match▲Shots on target12/123.75 shots/match
45.5%Possession12/1246.8%
4 corners/matchCorners12/124.42 corners/match
1.67 cards/matchCards12/121.75 cards/match
11.2 fouls/matchFouls12/1211.4 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.96 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.85 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples23 / 23home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 25 Jan 2026, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsBrentfordNottingham Forest
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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