Premier League · 2025Sun, 1 Feb 2026, 14:00 UTCFull timeVilla ParkFull-time recap

Aston Villa

LWDLW

0–1Full-time recap

Brentford

DWWLL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Aston Villa	Brentford
Shots	27 shots/match▲	6 shots/match
Shots on target	5 shots/match▲	2 shots/match
Possession	72%	28%
Corners	12 corners/match	1 corners/match
Fouls	8 fouls/match	8 fouls/match
Yellow cards	1 cards/match▲	3 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Aston Villa's last-five shots average is above their season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Aston Villa's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Aston Villa's last-five shots average is above their season average.

17 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season12.7 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Shots	17 shots/match	12.7 shots/match	12.2 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Aston Villa

0Draws

1Brentford

23 Aug 2025Brentford — Aston Villa · Premier League1–0

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Aston Villa favored in 6 of 14 directional metrics · Brentford in 1 · 7 too close

1.46 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 24/241.5 goals/match

1.08 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 24/241.33 goals/match

—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—

—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—

12.7 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 24/2410.3 shots/match

12.6 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 24/2412.7 shots/match

4.5 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 24/244.04 shots/match

4.08 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 24/244.04 shots/match

53.6%Possessionseason · 24/2446.7%

5.33 corners/matchCornersseason · 24/244.96 corners/match

4.58 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 24/245.04 corners/match

1.54 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 24/242 cards/match

9.79 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 24/2411 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

29%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 24/2425%

67%Scoring frequencyseason · 24/24▲71%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Aston Villa77.5

Brentford37.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Aston Villa61.7

Brentford45.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Aston Villa60

Brentford54.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Aston Villa37.5

Brentford17.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Aston Villa18.8

Brentford61.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Aston Villa65

Brentford42.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Aston Villa51.9

Brentford44.4

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

1 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.6 goals/match

0.6 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.2 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

17 shots/match▲Shots5/512 shots/match

5 shots/match▲Shots on target5/54.2 shots/match

61.2%Possession5/550.8%

6.4 corners/matchCorners5/55.6 corners/match

1 cards/matchCards5/52.2 cards/match

9.6 fouls/matchFouls5/510 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

1.5 goals/matchGoals scored10/101.5 goals/match

1.2 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

14.1 shots/match▲Shots10/1010 shots/match

5 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.9 shots/match

54.6%Possession10/1052%

5.3 corners/matchCorners10/104.3 corners/match

1.4 cards/matchCards10/102.2 cards/match

9.2 fouls/matchFouls10/109.9 fouls/match

Window

Season

24 / 24 matches

1.46 goals/matchGoals scored24/241.5 goals/match

1.08 goals/match▲Goals allowed24/241.33 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

12.7 shots/match▲Shots24/2410.3 shots/match

4.5 shots/match▲Shots on target24/244.04 shots/match

53.6%Possession24/2446.7%

5.33 corners/matchCorners24/244.96 corners/match

1.54 cards/matchCards24/242 cards/match

9.79 fouls/matchFouls24/2411 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

12 / 12 matches

1.5 goals/match▲Goals scored12/121.08 goals/match

0.83 goals/match▲Goals allowed12/121.67 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

13.7 shots/match▲Shots12/129.33 shots/match

4.92 shots/match▲Shots on target12/123.75 shots/match

54.2%Possession12/1247.8%

5.75 corners/matchCorners12/125.92 corners/match

1.25 cards/matchCards12/122.33 cards/match

9.58 fouls/matchFouls12/1210.8 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples24 / 24home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 1 Feb 2026, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4

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