PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Sun, 1 Feb 2026, 14:00 UTCFull timeCity GroundFull-time recap
1–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricNottingham ForestCrystal Palace
Shots9 shots/match14 shots/match▲
Shots on target1 shots/match3 shots/match▲
Possession33%67%
Corners5 corners/match7 corners/match
Fouls4 fouls/match12 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match▲3 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Crystal Palace's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Nottingham Forest's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Crystal Palace's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Crystal Palace's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.04 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.6 goals/match1.04 goals/match1.42 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Nottingham Forest have a visible home split

moderate

Nottingham Forest's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

13.7 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season11.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots13.7 shots/match11.8 shots/match12.2 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Nottingham Forest
1Draws
0Crystal Palace
Crystal Palace — Nottingham Forest · Premier League1–1

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Nottingham Forest favored in 1 of 14 directional metrics · Crystal Palace in 5 · 8 too close

1 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 24/241.04 goals/match
1.46 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 24/24▲1.21 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
11.8 shots/matchShotsseason · 24/2411.6 shots/match
12.8 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 24/24▲11.5 shots/match
3.67 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 24/24▲3.88 shots/match
4.08 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 24/244.04 shots/match
48%Possessionseason · 24/2444%
5.33 corners/matchCornersseason · 24/244.04 corners/match
4.83 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 24/245.04 corners/match
1.54 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 24/242.04 cards/match
10.7 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 24/2410.2 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
21%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 24/24▲33%
54%Scoring frequencyseason · 24/24▲67%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Nottingham Forest42.5
Crystal Palace22.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Nottingham Forest25.8
Crystal Palace29.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Nottingham Forest39.2
Crystal Palace66.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Nottingham Forest57.5
Crystal Palace82.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Nottingham Forest38.8
Crystal Palace55
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Nottingham Forest65
Crystal Palace17.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Nottingham Forest48.1
Crystal Palace35
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.2 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.6 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
9 shots/matchShots5/5▲11 shots/match
2.6 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲3.6 shots/match
37.4%Possession5/547%
4.6 corners/matchCorners5/54.8 corners/match
1 cards/matchCards5/53.2 cards/match
10.2 fouls/matchFouls5/511.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1 goals/match▲Goals scored10/100.7 goals/match
1.3 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.7 shots/matchShots10/10▲11.7 shots/match
3.2 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲3.4 shots/match
44.8%Possession10/1046%
4.8 corners/matchCorners10/104.4 corners/match
1.5 cards/matchCards10/102.4 cards/match
10 fouls/matchFouls10/109.9 fouls/match

Window

Season

24 / 24 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored24/241.04 goals/match
1.46 goals/matchGoals allowed24/24▲1.21 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.8 shots/matchShots24/2411.6 shots/match
3.67 shots/matchShots on target24/24▲3.88 shots/match
48%Possession24/2444%
5.33 corners/matchCorners24/244.04 corners/match
1.54 cards/matchCards24/242.04 cards/match
10.7 fouls/matchFouls24/2410.2 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

12 / 12 matches
1.08 goals/matchGoals scored12/12▲1.17 goals/match
1.5 goals/matchGoals allowed12/12▲1.17 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.7 shots/match▲Shots12/1210.1 shots/match
3.58 shots/matchShots on target12/123.42 shots/match
49.3%Possession12/1244.3%
6.25 corners/matchCorners12/124.25 corners/match
1.33 cards/matchCards12/122.25 cards/match
10 fouls/matchFouls12/1211 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples24 / 24home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 1 Feb 2026, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsNottingham ForestCrystal Palace
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

Make a graphic from this match

Creator Studio builds a branded post from this match's recorded data, with its evidence grade and source cutoff carried into the export.

Create a graphic from this match