PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Sat, 7 Feb 2026, 17:30 UTCFull timeSt. James' ParkFull-time recap
2–3Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricNewcastleBrentford
Shots16 shots/match▲11 shots/match
Shots on target4 shots/match5 shots/match▲
Possession54%46%
Corners9 corners/match3 corners/match
Fouls14 fouls/match18 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match2 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Brentford's last-five shots average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Brentford's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Brentford's recent record differs from the season

weak

Brentford's last-five shots average is above their season average.

12 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season10.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots12 shots/match10.3 shots/match12.2 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Brentford show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Brentford's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

12.9 shots/match▲ShotsNewcastle · Brentford10.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricNewcastleBrentfordBaseline
Shots12.9 shots/match10.3 shots/match12.2 shots/match
Shots against11.1 shots/match12.8 shots/match12.3 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Newcastle
0Draws
1Brentford
Brentford — Newcastle · Premier League3–1

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Newcastle favored in 5 of 14 directional metrics · Brentford in 2 · 7 too close

1.4 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 25/25▲1.56 goals/match
1.44 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 25/25▲1.36 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
12.9 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 25/2510.3 shots/match
11.1 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 25/2512.8 shots/match
4.52 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 25/254.08 shots/match
4.12 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 25/254.04 shots/match
53.6%Possessionseason · 25/2546.6%
6.72 corners/matchCornersseason · 25/254.88 corners/match
5.2 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 25/255.2 corners/match
1.6 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 25/252 cards/match
9.32 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 25/2511.2 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
28%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 25/2524%
72%Scoring frequencyseason · 25/2572%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Newcastle77.5
Brentford37.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Newcastle60.8
Brentford47.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Newcastle56.7
Brentford54.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Newcastle52.5
Brentford22.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Newcastle15
Brentford67.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Newcastle97.5
Brentford42.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Newcastle58.8
Brentford50
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.4 goals/matchGoals scored5/51.4 goals/match
2.4 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.8 shots/match▲Shots5/512 shots/match
4 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.8 shots/match
58.2%Possession5/549%
8.2 corners/matchCorners5/55.2 corners/match
2.2 cards/matchCards5/52.2 cards/match
9.4 fouls/matchFouls5/512 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.4 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.8 goals/match
1.7 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.4 shots/match▲Shots10/1010.7 shots/match
4.6 shots/match▲Shots on target10/104.3 shots/match
56.9%Possession10/1051.9%
7.6 corners/matchCorners10/104 corners/match
2.1 cards/matchCards10/102 cards/match
8.3 fouls/matchFouls10/1010.8 fouls/match

Window

Season

25 / 25 matches
1.4 goals/matchGoals scored25/25▲1.56 goals/match
1.44 goals/matchGoals allowed25/25▲1.36 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.9 shots/match▲Shots25/2510.3 shots/match
4.52 shots/match▲Shots on target25/254.08 shots/match
53.6%Possession25/2546.6%
6.72 corners/matchCorners25/254.88 corners/match
1.6 cards/matchCards25/252 cards/match
9.32 fouls/matchFouls25/2511.2 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

13 / 13 matches
1.85 goals/match▲Goals scored13/131.23 goals/match
1.54 goals/match▲Goals allowed13/131.69 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.4 shots/match▲Shots13/139.46 shots/match
5.62 shots/match▲Shots on target13/133.85 shots/match
51.8%Possession13/1347.7%
7.46 corners/matchCorners13/135.69 corners/match
1.46 cards/matchCards13/132.31 cards/match
10.7 fouls/matchFouls13/1311.3 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.9 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.15 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples25 / 25home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 7 Feb 2026, 21:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsNewcastleBrentford
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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