PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Thu, 12 Feb 2026, 20:00 UTCFull timeBrentford Community StadiumFull-time recap
1–1Full-time recap

Arsenal

DDLWW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricBrentfordArsenal
Shots12 shots/match▲7 shots/match
Shots on target3 shots/match▲2 shots/match
Possession41%59%
Corners6 corners/match4 corners/match
Fouls12 fouls/match11 fouls/match
Yellow cards3 cards/match2 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Brentford's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Brentford's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Brentford's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Brentford's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.54 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goals/match1.54 goals/match1.38 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Brentford show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

Brentford's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

10.4 shots/match▲ShotsBrentford · Arsenal14.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricBrentfordArsenalBaseline
Shots10.4 shots/match14.6 shots/match12.4 shots/match
Shots against12.6 shots/match7.77 shots/match12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Arsenal have recorded the higher season possession share.

46.4%▲PossessionBrentford · Arsenal57.5%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 11.0 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricBrentfordArsenalBaseline
Possession46.4%57.5%50%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Brentford
0Draws
1Arsenal
Arsenal — Brentford · Premier League2–0

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Brentford favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · Arsenal in 10 · 4 too close

1.54 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 26/26▲1.92 goals/match
1.35 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 26/26▲0.69 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
10.4 shots/matchShotsseason · 26/26▲14.6 shots/match
12.6 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 26/26▲7.77 shots/match
4.04 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 26/26▲4.92 shots/match
3.96 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 26/26▲2.15 shots/match
46.4%Possessionseason · 26/2657.5%
4.92 corners/matchCornersseason · 26/266.04 corners/match
5.15 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 26/26▲3.12 corners/match
2.04 cards/matchCardsseason · 26/26▲1.38 cards/match
11.3 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 26/2610.1 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
23%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 26/26▲50%
73%Scoring frequencyseason · 26/26▲88%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Brentford37.5
Arsenal82.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Brentford47.5
Arsenal88.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Brentford54.2
Arsenal97.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Brentford22.5
Arsenal67.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Brentford67.5
Arsenal20
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Brentford47.5
Arsenal92.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Brentford51.2
Arsenal75
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2 goals/match
1.4 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲0.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.8 shots/matchShots5/5▲13.4 shots/match
3.2 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲4.4 shots/match
47%Possession5/554.8%
5 corners/matchCorners5/57.8 corners/match
2.4 cards/matchCards5/51.4 cards/match
11.8 fouls/matchFouls5/510.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.8 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲2 goals/match
1 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲0.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.2 shots/matchShots10/10▲14.7 shots/match
4.4 shots/matchShots on target10/104.6 shots/match
50.3%Possession10/1054.3%
4.6 corners/matchCorners10/106 corners/match
2.3 cards/matchCards10/101.6 cards/match
11.2 fouls/matchFouls10/1010.2 fouls/match

Window

Season

26 / 26 matches
1.54 goals/matchGoals scored26/26▲1.92 goals/match
1.35 goals/matchGoals allowed26/26▲0.69 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.4 shots/matchShots26/26▲14.6 shots/match
4.04 shots/matchShots on target26/26▲4.92 shots/match
46.4%Possession26/2657.5%
4.92 corners/matchCorners26/266.04 corners/match
2.04 cards/matchCards26/261.38 cards/match
11.3 fouls/matchFouls26/2610.1 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

13 / 13 matches
1.85 goals/match▲Goals scored13/131.46 goals/match
1 goals/matchGoals allowed13/13▲0.77 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.3 shots/matchShots13/13▲13 shots/match
4.23 shots/matchShots on target13/13▲4.92 shots/match
45.2%Possession13/1356.7%
4.15 corners/matchCorners13/136.23 corners/match
1.77 cards/matchCards13/131.85 cards/match
11.2 fouls/matchFouls13/1310.3 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

5.1 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/15.21 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples26 / 26home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Fri, 13 Feb 2026, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsBrentfordArsenal
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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