PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Wed, 11 Feb 2026, 19:30 UTCFull timeVilla ParkFull-time recap
1–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricAston VillaBrighton
Shots15 shots/match▲9 shots/match
Shots on target1 shots/match3 shots/match▲
Possession50%50%
Corners7 corners/match5 corners/match
Fouls9 fouls/match15 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match▲3 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Brighton's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Brighton. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Brighton's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Brighton's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.31 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.6 goals/match1.31 goals/match1.38 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Brighton.

4.19 days▲Rest daysAston Villa · Brighton3.23 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricAston VillaBrightonBaseline
Rest days4.19 days3.23 days—
Matches last 14 days2 matches2 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Aston Villa
0Draws
0Brighton
Brighton — Aston Villa · Premier League3–4

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Aston Villa favored in 4 of 14 directional metrics · Brighton in 2 · 8 too close

1.42 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 26/261.31 goals/match
1.04 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 26/261.31 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
12.5 shots/matchShotsseason · 26/2612.8 shots/match
12.8 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 26/2612.3 shots/match
4.35 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 26/264.23 shots/match
4.23 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 26/26▲4 shots/match
53.2%Possessionseason · 26/2652.9%
5.35 corners/matchCornersseason · 26/264.92 corners/match
4.85 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 26/264.69 corners/match
1.54 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 26/262.42 cards/match
9.81 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 26/2612 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
31%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 26/2619%
69%Scoring frequencyseason · 26/26▲77%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Aston Villa72.5
Brighton62.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Aston Villa59.2
Brighton52.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Aston Villa49.2
Brighton62.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Aston Villa37.5
Brighton52.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Aston Villa17.5
Brighton86.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Aston Villa62.5
Brighton50
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Aston Villa49.4
Brighton64.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
0.8 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.6 goals/match
0.6 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
16.2 shots/match▲Shots5/511.4 shots/match
4.6 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.4 shots/match
54.2%Possession5/557.2%
6.8 corners/matchCorners5/56 corners/match
1.4 cards/matchCards5/51.6 cards/match
11 fouls/matchFouls5/510.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.2 goals/match▲Goals scored10/100.9 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.1 shots/match▲Shots10/1011.8 shots/match
4.5 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.7 shots/match
53.7%Possession10/1055.1%
5.8 corners/matchCorners10/104.6 corners/match
1.5 cards/matchCards10/102.4 cards/match
8.9 fouls/matchFouls10/1011.8 fouls/match

Window

Season

26 / 26 matches
1.42 goals/match▲Goals scored26/261.31 goals/match
1.04 goals/match▲Goals allowed26/261.31 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.5 shots/matchShots26/2612.8 shots/match
4.35 shots/matchShots on target26/264.23 shots/match
53.2%Possession26/2652.9%
5.35 corners/matchCorners26/264.92 corners/match
1.54 cards/matchCards26/262.42 cards/match
9.81 fouls/matchFouls26/2612 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

13 / 13 matches
1.46 goals/match▲Goals scored13/131.08 goals/match
0.77 goals/match▲Goals allowed13/131.54 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.8 shots/match▲Shots13/1311.9 shots/match
4.62 shots/match▲Shots on target13/133.85 shots/match
53.8%Possession13/1351.3%
5.85 corners/matchCorners13/134.54 corners/match
1.31 cards/matchCards13/133.31 cards/match
9.54 fouls/matchFouls13/1312.9 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

4.19 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/13.23 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples26 / 26home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Wed, 11 Feb 2026, 23:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsAston VillaBrighton
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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