PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Wed, 11 Feb 2026, 19:30 UTCFull timeEtihad StadiumFull-time recap
3–0Full-time recap

Fulham

WLWLL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricManchester CityFulham
Shots13 shots/match14 shots/match▲
Shots on target5 shots/match▲3 shots/match
Possession56%44%
Corners4 corners/match4 corners/match
Fouls8 fouls/match10 fouls/match
Yellow cards3 cards/match1 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Manchester City. A second useful context is: Fulham's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Manchester City.

3.12 days▲Rest daysManchester City · Fulham4.19 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricManchester CityFulhamBaseline
Rest days3.12 days4.19 days—
Matches last 14 days2 matches2 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Fulham's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Fulham's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.35 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goals/match1.35 goals/match1.38 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Manchester City
0Draws
0Fulham
Fulham — Manchester City · Premier League4–5

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Manchester City favored in 9 of 14 directional metrics · Fulham in 0 · 5 too close

2.08 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 26/261.35 goals/match
0.92 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 26/261.54 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
14.2 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 26/2612 shots/match
9.85 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 26/2611.8 shots/match
5.08 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 26/263.69 shots/match
3.42 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 26/264.12 shots/match
59%Possessionseason · 26/2651.4%
5.42 corners/matchCornersseason · 26/264.65 corners/match
3.81 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 26/265.62 corners/match
1.88 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 26/262.08 cards/match
10.1 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 26/2610.9 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
42%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 26/2619%
85%Scoring frequencyseason · 26/2681%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Manchester City92.5
Fulham57.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Manchester City90.8
Fulham37.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Manchester City92.5
Fulham44.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Manchester City47.5
Fulham27.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Manchester City42.5
Fulham63.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Manchester City67.5
Fulham37.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Manchester City70
Fulham42.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.8 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.6 shots/matchShots5/512.2 shots/match
4 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.4 shots/match
60.2%Possession5/552%
4.4 corners/matchCorners5/55.2 corners/match
2.8 cards/matchCards5/51.8 cards/match
12 fouls/matchFouls5/510.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.6 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.2 goals/match
0.8 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.6 shots/match▲Shots10/1013 shots/match
4.6 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.5 shots/match
61.8%Possession10/1052.3%
5.2 corners/matchCorners10/103.9 corners/match
2.2 cards/matchCards10/102.6 cards/match
11.3 fouls/matchFouls10/109.6 fouls/match

Window

Season

26 / 26 matches
2.08 goals/match▲Goals scored26/261.35 goals/match
0.92 goals/match▲Goals allowed26/261.54 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.2 shots/match▲Shots26/2612 shots/match
5.08 shots/match▲Shots on target26/263.69 shots/match
59%Possession26/2651.4%
5.42 corners/matchCorners26/264.65 corners/match
1.88 cards/matchCards26/262.08 cards/match
10.1 fouls/matchFouls26/2610.9 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

13 / 13 matches
2.46 goals/match▲Goals scored13/131 goals/match
0.62 goals/match▲Goals allowed13/131.85 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.8 shots/match▲Shots13/1311.1 shots/match
6.15 shots/match▲Shots on target13/133.77 shots/match
59.4%Possession13/1349.9%
6.77 corners/matchCorners13/134.08 corners/match
1.54 cards/matchCards13/132.54 cards/match
10.3 fouls/matchFouls13/1311.5 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

3.12 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/14.19 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples26 / 26home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Wed, 11 Feb 2026, 23:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsManchester CityFulham
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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