PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Sun, 8 Feb 2026, 16:30 UTCFull timeAnfieldFull-time recap
1–2Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricLiverpoolManchester City
Shots15 shots/match17 shots/match▲
Shots on target4 shots/match7 shots/match▲
Possession47%53%
Corners5 corners/match4 corners/match
Fouls13 fouls/match16 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match▲4 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Manchester City's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Liverpool's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Manchester City's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Manchester City's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.04 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match2.04 goals/match1.4 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Liverpool have a visible home split

moderate

Liverpool's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

17.9 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season15.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots17.9 shots/match15.5 shots/match12.2 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Both teams have elevated corners records

weak

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

5.6 corners/match▲CornersLiverpool · Manchester City5.48 corners/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricLiverpoolManchester CityBaseline
Corners5.6 corners/match5.48 corners/match4.96 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Liverpool
0Draws
1Manchester City
Manchester City — Liverpool · Premier League3–0

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Liverpool favored in 2 of 14 directional metrics · Manchester City in 7 · 5 too close

1.6 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 25/25▲2.04 goals/match
1.4 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 25/25▲0.96 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
15.5 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 25/2514.2 shots/match
10.8 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 25/25▲9.68 shots/match
4.4 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 25/25▲5.08 shots/match
3.72 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 25/25▲3.44 shots/match
60.8%Possessionseason · 25/2559.2%
5.6 corners/matchCornersseason · 25/255.48 corners/match
4.52 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 25/25▲3.8 corners/match
1.68 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 25/251.84 cards/match
9.48 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 25/2510.2 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
28%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 25/25▲40%
84%Scoring frequencyseason · 25/2584%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Liverpool97.5
Manchester City92.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Liverpool75.8
Manchester City90.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Liverpool73.3
Manchester City92.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Liverpool72.5
Manchester City47.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Liverpool20
Manchester City45
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Liverpool77.5
Manchester City67.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Liverpool60
Manchester City72.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.6 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.4 goals/match
1.4 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
17.2 shots/match▲Shots5/514.4 shots/match
5.2 shots/match▲Shots on target5/54.2 shots/match
58.6%Possession5/561%
6.4 corners/matchCorners5/54.8 corners/match
1.6 cards/matchCards5/52.4 cards/match
9.6 fouls/matchFouls5/511.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.6 goals/matchGoals scored10/101.6 goals/match
1.1 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲0.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.5 shots/match▲Shots10/1014 shots/match
4.4 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲4.7 shots/match
60%Possession10/1062.3%
6.2 corners/matchCorners10/105 corners/match
1.3 cards/matchCards10/101.9 cards/match
7.7 fouls/matchFouls10/1011.1 fouls/match

Window

Season

25 / 25 matches
1.6 goals/matchGoals scored25/25▲2.04 goals/match
1.4 goals/matchGoals allowed25/25▲0.96 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.5 shots/match▲Shots25/2514.2 shots/match
4.4 shots/matchShots on target25/25▲5.08 shots/match
60.8%Possession25/2559.2%
5.6 corners/matchCorners25/255.48 corners/match
1.68 cards/matchCards25/251.84 cards/match
9.48 fouls/matchFouls25/2510.2 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

13 / 13 matches
1.62 goals/matchGoals scored13/131.69 goals/match
1.08 goals/match▲Goals allowed13/131.23 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
17.9 shots/match▲Shots13/1312.6 shots/match
5.23 shots/match▲Shots on target13/134 shots/match
60.7%Possession13/1358.7%
5.85 corners/matchCorners13/134.08 corners/match
1.23 cards/matchCards13/132.23 cards/match
9.38 fouls/matchFouls13/139.92 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.85 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples25 / 25home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 8 Feb 2026, 20:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsLiverpoolManchester City
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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