PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Sun, 8 Feb 2026, 14:00 UTCFull timeAmex StadiumFull-time recap
0–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricBrightonCrystal Palace
Shots7 shots/match7 shots/match
Shots on target2 shots/match4 shots/match▲
Possession64%36%
Corners3 corners/match4 corners/match
Fouls12 fouls/match9 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match▲3 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Brighton's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Brighton have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Brighton's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Brighton's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.36 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match1.36 goals/match1.4 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Brighton have recorded the higher season possession share.

53%▲PossessionBrighton · Crystal Palace43.7%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 9.3 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricBrightonCrystal PalaceBaseline
Possession53%43.7%50%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Brighton
1Draws
0Crystal Palace
Crystal Palace — Brighton · Premier League0–0

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Brighton favored in 5 of 14 directional metrics · Crystal Palace in 4 · 5 too close

1.36 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 25/251.04 goals/match
1.32 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 25/25▲1.16 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
13 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 25/2511.4 shots/match
12.2 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 25/25▲11.3 shots/match
4.28 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 25/253.88 shots/match
4.12 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 25/253.96 shots/match
53%Possessionseason · 25/2543.7%
4.92 corners/matchCornersseason · 25/254.04 corners/match
4.6 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 25/254.96 corners/match
2.4 cards/matchCardsseason · 25/25▲2.08 cards/match
11.8 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 25/2510.1 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
20%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 25/25▲36%
80%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 25/2568%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Brighton67.5
Crystal Palace17.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Brighton55
Crystal Palace32.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Brighton54.2
Crystal Palace70
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Brighton57.5
Crystal Palace82.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Brighton86.2
Crystal Palace51.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Brighton47.5
Crystal Palace17.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Brighton65
Crystal Palace35
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
0.8 goals/matchGoals scored5/50.8 goals/match
1.2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/51.2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.8 shots/match▲Shots5/510.2 shots/match
3.4 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲4.2 shots/match
55.2%Possession5/546%
5.4 corners/matchCorners5/54.4 corners/match
2.2 cards/matchCards5/53.2 cards/match
10.8 fouls/matchFouls5/511 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
0.9 goals/match▲Goals scored10/100.6 goals/match
1.2 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.7 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.3 shots/match▲Shots10/1011.3 shots/match
3.5 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.3 shots/match
55.2%Possession10/1045.9%
4.3 corners/matchCorners10/104.4 corners/match
2.3 cards/matchCards10/102.7 cards/match
11.8 fouls/matchFouls10/1010 fouls/match

Window

Season

25 / 25 matches
1.36 goals/match▲Goals scored25/251.04 goals/match
1.32 goals/matchGoals allowed25/25▲1.16 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13 shots/match▲Shots25/2511.4 shots/match
4.28 shots/match▲Shots on target25/253.88 shots/match
53%Possession25/2543.7%
4.92 corners/matchCorners25/254.04 corners/match
2.4 cards/matchCards25/252.08 cards/match
11.8 fouls/matchFouls25/2510.1 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

13 / 13 matches
1.54 goals/match▲Goals scored13/131.15 goals/match
1.08 goals/matchGoals allowed13/131.08 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.8 shots/match▲Shots13/139.85 shots/match
4.62 shots/match▲Shots on target13/133.46 shots/match
54.5%Possession13/1343.7%
5.31 corners/matchCorners13/134.23 corners/match
1.54 cards/matchCards13/132.31 cards/match
11 fouls/matchFouls13/1310.8 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.96 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples25 / 25home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 8 Feb 2026, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsBrightonCrystal Palace
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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