PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Wed, 11 Feb 2026, 19:30 UTCFull timeSelhurst ParkFull-time recap
2–3Full-time recap

Burnley

DDDLL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricCrystal PalaceBurnley
Shots21 shots/match▲8 shots/match
Shots on target3 shots/match3 shots/match
Possession65%35%
Corners8 corners/match2 corners/match
Fouls11 fouls/match8 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match1 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Crystal Palace. A second useful context is: Burnley's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Crystal Palace.

3.23 days▲Rest daysCrystal Palace · Burnley4.19 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricCrystal PalaceBurnleyBaseline
Rest days3.23 days4.19 days—
Matches last 14 days2 matches2 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Burnley show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Burnley's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

11.8 shots/match▲ShotsCrystal Palace · Burnley9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricCrystal PalaceBurnleyBaseline
Shots11.8 shots/match9 shots/match12.4 shots/match
Shots against11.2 shots/match16.7 shots/match12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Crystal Palace have a visible home split

moderate

Crystal Palace's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

13.8 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season11.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots13.8 shots/match11.8 shots/match12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Crystal Palace
0Draws
0Burnley
Burnley — Crystal Palace · Premier League0–1

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Crystal Palace favored in 8 of 14 directional metrics · Burnley in 1 · 5 too close

1.08 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 26/261.08 goals/match
1.23 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 26/261.96 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
11.8 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 26/269 shots/match
11.2 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 26/2616.7 shots/match
3.85 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 26/262.92 shots/match
3.92 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 26/265.85 shots/match
44.5%Possessionseason · 26/2641.4%
4.19 corners/matchCornersseason · 26/263.38 corners/match
4.85 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 26/265.73 corners/match
2.08 cards/matchCardsseason · 26/26▲1.81 cards/match
10.2 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 26/269.92 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
35%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 26/2612%
69%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 26/2665%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Crystal Palace27.5
Burnley2.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Crystal Palace31.7
Burnley8.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Crystal Palace70.8
Burnley2.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Crystal Palace82.5
Burnley12.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Crystal Palace55
Burnley31.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Crystal Palace17.5
Burnley7.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Crystal Palace34.4
Burnley8.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.2 goals/matchGoals scored5/51.2 goals/match
1.8 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.2 shots/match▲Shots5/59.4 shots/match
3.8 shots/match▲Shots on target5/52.6 shots/match
50.8%Possession5/542%
5.4 corners/matchCorners5/52.2 corners/match
3.2 cards/matchCards5/52.2 cards/match
11.6 fouls/matchFouls5/59.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
0.8 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1 goals/match
1.7 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.8 shots/match▲Shots10/109.4 shots/match
3.2 shots/match▲Shots on target10/102.2 shots/match
48.5%Possession10/1042.1%
5 corners/matchCorners10/102.9 corners/match
2.7 cards/matchCards10/102 cards/match
10.2 fouls/matchFouls10/1010.1 fouls/match

Window

Season

26 / 26 matches
1.08 goals/matchGoals scored26/261.08 goals/match
1.23 goals/match▲Goals allowed26/261.96 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.8 shots/match▲Shots26/269 shots/match
3.85 shots/match▲Shots on target26/262.92 shots/match
44.5%Possession26/2641.4%
4.19 corners/matchCorners26/263.38 corners/match
2.08 cards/matchCards26/261.81 cards/match
10.2 fouls/matchFouls26/269.92 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

13 / 13 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored13/13▲1.23 goals/match
1.38 goals/match▲Goals allowed13/132.46 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.8 shots/match▲Shots13/138.08 shots/match
4.23 shots/match▲Shots on target13/132.92 shots/match
45.4%Possession13/1339.8%
4.15 corners/matchCorners13/133.54 corners/match
1.85 cards/matchCards13/132.15 cards/match
9.46 fouls/matchFouls13/1310.2 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

3.23 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/14.19 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples26 / 26home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Wed, 11 Feb 2026, 23:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsCrystal PalaceBurnley
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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