Premier League · 2025Sat, 7 Feb 2026, 15:00 UTCFull timeVitality StadiumFull-time recap

Bournemouth

LWDWW

1–1Full-time recap

Aston Villa

WDLWL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Bournemouth	Aston Villa
Shots	20 shots/match▲	7 shots/match
Shots on target	9 shots/match▲	4 shots/match
Possession	53%	47%
Corners	11 corners/match	4 corners/match
Fouls	4 fouls/match	11 fouls/match
Yellow cards	1 cards/match	1 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Aston Villa's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Aston Villa's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Aston Villa's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.44 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	0.6 goals/match	1.44 goals/match	1.4 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Bournemouth

0Draws

1Aston Villa

9 Nov 2025Aston Villa — Bournemouth · Premier League4–0

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Bournemouth favored in 4 of 14 directional metrics · Aston Villa in 5 · 5 too close

1.64 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 25/251.44 goals/match

1.76 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 25/25▲1.08 goals/match

—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—

—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—

13.6 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 25/2512.4 shots/match

12.6 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 25/2512.9 shots/match

4.96 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 25/254.48 shots/match

4.72 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 25/25▲4.28 shots/match

49.2%Possessionseason · 25/2553.4%

5.8 corners/matchCornersseason · 25/255.28 corners/match

5.16 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 25/25▲4.84 corners/match

2.4 cards/matchCardsseason · 25/25▲1.52 cards/match

12.1 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 25/259.84 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

24%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 25/25▲28%

84%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 25/2568%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Bournemouth47.5

Aston Villa72.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Bournemouth79.2

Aston Villa60.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Bournemouth24.2

Aston Villa47.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Bournemouth92.5

Aston Villa37.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Bournemouth87.5

Aston Villa18.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Bournemouth85

Aston Villa62.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Bournemouth84.4

Aston Villa50

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

2 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.6 goals/match

1.2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲0.6 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

12.6 shots/matchShots5/5▲16.2 shots/match

4.6 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲5 shots/match

42%Possession5/556%

5.8 corners/matchCorners5/56.4 corners/match

2.2 cards/matchCards5/51 cards/match

10.2 fouls/matchFouls5/59.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

2 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.4 goals/match

2 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.2 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

14.5 shots/match▲Shots10/1013.3 shots/match

5.2 shots/match▲Shots on target10/104.8 shots/match

44.6%Possession10/1054.6%

6.3 corners/matchCorners10/105.4 corners/match

2.1 cards/matchCards10/101.5 cards/match

10.7 fouls/matchFouls10/109.3 fouls/match

Window

Season

25 / 25 matches

1.64 goals/match▲Goals scored25/251.44 goals/match

1.76 goals/matchGoals allowed25/25▲1.08 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

13.6 shots/match▲Shots25/2512.4 shots/match

4.96 shots/match▲Shots on target25/254.48 shots/match

49.2%Possession25/2553.4%

5.8 corners/matchCorners25/255.28 corners/match

2.4 cards/matchCards25/251.52 cards/match

12.1 fouls/matchFouls25/259.84 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

13 / 13 matches

1.54 goals/match▲Goals scored13/131.38 goals/match

1.08 goals/match▲Goals allowed13/131.31 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

14 shots/match▲Shots13/1311.3 shots/match

4.62 shots/match▲Shots on target13/134.08 shots/match

52.2%Possession13/1352.6%

5.46 corners/matchCorners13/134.85 corners/match

2 cards/matchCards13/131.77 cards/match

11.8 fouls/matchFouls13/1310.1 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.04 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples25 / 25home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 7 Feb 2026, 19:00 UTC · analysis-v4

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