PitchMath
UEFA Champions League · 2025Stadio Diego Armando Maradona

Napoli 2–3 Chelsea · UEFA Champions League

Napoli

LDWLD
2–3Historical match

Chelsea

WDWLW

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Chelsea won 2–3.

Shots
811
Shots on target
55
Expected goals
0.982.01
Possession
46%54%

Full time

What the match recorded

Chelsea beat Napoli 3–2. Recorded in this match (Napoli – Chelsea): shots 8–11, shots on target 5–5, expected goals 0.98–2.01, possession 46%–54%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Both teams have elevated corners records

moderate

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

6.13 corners/matchCornersNapoli · Chelsea6.13 corners/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricNapoliChelseaBaseline
Corners6.13 corners/match6.13 corners/match4.63 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

Napoli show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Napoli's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

11.8 shots/match ▲ShotsNapoli · Chelsea14 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricNapoliChelseaBaseline
Shots11.8 shots/match14 shots/match13.4 shots/match
Shots against12.1 shots/match8.38 shots/match13.1 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Napoli's recent record differs from the season

weak

Napoli's last-five shots average is above their season average.

14.2 shots/match ▲ShotsLast 5 · Season11.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots14.2 shots/match11.8 shots/match13.4 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots8 shots11 shotsNapoli 8 shots, Chelsea 11 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots5 shotsNapoli 5 shots, Chelsea 5 shots
  • Expected goals0.98 xG2.01 xGNapoli 0.98 xG, Chelsea 2.01 xG
  • Possession46%54%Napoli 46%, Chelsea 54%
  • Corners4 corners1 cornerNapoli 4 corners, Chelsea 1 corner
  • Fouls15 fouls15 foulsNapoli 15 fouls, Chelsea 15 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Andrey Santos · Chelsea · 11′ · 0.01 xG · on targetCole Palmer · Chelsea · 48′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedRasmus Højlund · Napoli · 63′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJoão Pedro · Chelsea · 61′ · 0.03 xG · goalEnzo Fernández · Chelsea · 67′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMathías Olivera · Napoli · 23′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJoão Pedro · Chelsea · 27′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedEnzo Fernández · Chelsea · 74′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedReece James · Chelsea · 17′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedAntonio Vergara · Napoli · 39′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedMathías Olivera · Napoli · 29′ · 0.10 xG · on targetPedro Neto · Chelsea · 27′ · 0.16 xG · on targetGiovanni Di Lorenzo · Napoli · 28′ · 0.16 xG · on targetJoão Pedro · Chelsea · 82′ · 0.16 xG · goalRomelu Lukaku · Napoli · 90′ · 0.18 xG · on targetAntonio Vergara · Napoli · 33′ · 0.19 xG · goalRasmus Højlund · Napoli · 43′ · 0.19 xG · goalJoão Pedro · Chelsea · 45′ · 0.62 xG · off target or blockedEnzo Fernández · Chelsea · 19′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Napoli: 8 shots, 5 on target, 0.97 xG. Chelsea: 11 shots, 5 on target, 2.03 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Antonio Vergara · Napoli · 33′Rasmus Højlund · Napoli · 43′Enzo Fernández · Chelsea · 19′João Pedro · Chelsea · 61′João Pedro · Chelsea · 82′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Napoli 0.97 xG · Chelsea 2.03 xG.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Napoli favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · Chelsea in 11

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Napoli8 matchesChelsea8 matches
1.13 goals/matchGoals scored8/8▲ 2.13 goals/match
1.88 goals/matchGoals allowed8/8▲ 1.25 goals/match
1.33 xG/matchExpected goals8/8▲ 1.69 xG/match
11.8 shots/matchShots8/8▲ 14 shots/match
3.63 shots/matchShots on target8/8▲ 5.38 shots/match
51.6%Possession8/8● 57.4%
6.13 corners/matchCorners8/86.13 corners/match
13.8 fouls/matchFouls8/813.4 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples8 / 8home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Thu, 29 Jan 2026, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in UEFA Champions League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsNapoliChelsea
CompetitionUEFA Champions LeagueUEFA Champions League 2025/26
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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