UEFA Champions League · 2025Wed, 28 Jan 2026, 20:00 UTCFull timeStadio Diego Armando MaradonaFull-time recap

Napoli

LDWLD

2–3Full-time recap

Chelsea

WDWLW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Napoli	Chelsea
Shots	8 shots/match	11 shots/match▲
Shots on target	5 shots/match	5 shots/match
Expected goals	0.98 xG/match	2.01 xG/match▲
Possession	46%	54%
Corners	4 corners/match	1 corners/match
Fouls	15 fouls/match	15 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Napoli: 8 shots, 5 on target, 0.97 xG. Chelsea: 11 shots, 5 on target, 2.03 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Napoli 0.97 xG · Chelsea 2.03 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline. A second useful context is: Napoli's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. Limitation: Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Both teams have elevated corners records

moderate

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

6.13 corners/match▲CornersNapoli · Chelsea6.13 corners/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

Metric	Napoli	Chelsea	Baseline
Corners	6.13 corners/match	6.13 corners/match	4.63 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

Napoli show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Napoli's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

11.8 shots/match▲ShotsNapoli · Chelsea14 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Napoli	Chelsea	Baseline
Shots	11.8 shots/match	14 shots/match	13.4 shots/match
Shots against	12.1 shots/match	8.38 shots/match	13.1 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Napoli's recent record differs from the season

weak

Napoli's last-five shots average is above their season average.

14.2 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season11.8 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Shots	14.2 shots/match	11.8 shots/match	13.4 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Napoli favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · Chelsea in 11 · 3 too close

1.13 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 8/8▲2.13 goals/match

1.88 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 8/8▲1.25 goals/match

1.33 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 8/8▲1.69 xG/match

1.6 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 8/8▲1.16 xG/match

11.8 shots/matchShotsseason · 8/8▲14 shots/match

12.1 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 8/8▲8.38 shots/match

3.63 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 8/8▲5.38 shots/match

5 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 8/8▲3.13 shots/match

51.6%Possessionseason · 8/857.4%

6.13 corners/matchCornersseason · 8/86.13 corners/match

3.25 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 8/8▲2.63 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

13.8 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 8/813.4 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

25%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 8/8▲38%

63%Scoring frequencyseason · 8/8▲100%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Napoli58.3

Chelsea86.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Napoli23

Chelsea66.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Napoli39.6

Chelsea85.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Napoli17.9

Chelsea27.4

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Napoli84.5

Chelsea82.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Napoli83.3

Chelsea83.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Napoli53

Chelsea71.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

1 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2 goals/match

1.2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/51.2 goals/match

1.68 xG/matchExpected goals5/51.64 xG/match

14.2 shots/matchShots5/514.6 shots/match

4.6 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲5.4 shots/match

59%Possession5/558.6%

6.4 corners/matchCorners5/56.6 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

16.2 fouls/matchFouls5/514.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

8 / 8 matches

1.13 goals/matchGoals scored8/8▲2.13 goals/match

1.88 goals/matchGoals allowed8/8▲1.25 goals/match

1.33 xG/matchExpected goals8/8▲1.69 xG/match

11.8 shots/matchShots8/8▲14 shots/match

3.63 shots/matchShots on target8/8▲5.38 shots/match

51.6%Possession8/857.4%

6.13 corners/matchCorners8/86.13 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

13.8 fouls/matchFouls8/813.4 fouls/match

Window

Season

8 / 8 matches

1.13 goals/matchGoals scored8/8▲2.13 goals/match

1.88 goals/matchGoals allowed8/8▲1.25 goals/match

1.33 xG/matchExpected goals8/8▲1.69 xG/match

11.8 shots/matchShots8/8▲14 shots/match

3.63 shots/matchShots on target8/8▲5.38 shots/match

51.6%Possession8/857.4%

6.13 corners/matchCorners8/86.13 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

13.8 fouls/matchFouls8/813.4 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

4 / 4 matches

1.5 goals/matchGoals scored4/4▲1.75 goals/match

1 goals/match▲Goals allowed4/42.25 goals/match

1.79 xG/match▲Expected goals4/41.34 xG/match

13.8 shots/match▲Shots4/411.5 shots/match

4.75 shots/match▲Shots on target4/44.25 shots/match

54%Possession4/452.5%

5.5 corners/matchCorners4/44 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

15.3 fouls/matchFouls4/413.8 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

8 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited

Season samples8 / 8home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.

Analysis cutoff: Thu, 29 Jan 2026, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4