PitchMath
Serie A · 2025Sat, 31 Jan 2026, 17:00 UTCFull timeStadio Diego Armando MaradonaFull-time recap

Napoli

DDDWL
2–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricNapoliFiorentina
Shots19 shots/match▲15 shots/match
Shots on target6 shots/match▲5 shots/match
Possession53%47%
Corners4 corners/match4 corners/match
Fouls21 fouls/match13 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match1 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Napoli's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Fiorentina's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Napoli's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Napoli's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.43 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goals/match1.43 goals/match1.17 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Fiorentina have a visible away split

moderate

Fiorentina's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

11.4 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season13.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots11.4 shots/match13.8 shots/match12 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Napoli
0Draws
0Fiorentina
Fiorentina — Napoli · Serie A1–3

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Napoli favored in 8 of 14 directional metrics · Fiorentina in 0 · 6 too close

1.43 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 23/231.09 goals/match
0.91 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 23/231.57 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
13.2 shots/matchShotsseason · 23/2313.8 shots/match
11 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 23/2313.3 shots/match
4.57 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 23/233.65 shots/match
2.91 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 23/234.83 shots/match
57.3%Possessionseason · 23/2353.2%
5.39 corners/matchCornersseason · 23/234.65 corners/match
2.7 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 23/234.7 corners/match
1.35 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 23/232.3 cards/match
12.1 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 23/2313.2 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
39%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 23/2313%
74%Scoring frequencyseason · 23/2374%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Napoli77.5
Fiorentina62.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Napoli67.5
Fiorentina47.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Napoli74.2
Fiorentina27.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Napoli27.5
Fiorentina57.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Napoli15
Fiorentina66.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Napoli87.5
Fiorentina62.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Napoli60
Fiorentina55
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.4 goals/match
1.2 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.4 shots/matchShots5/5▲13.8 shots/match
3.6 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲4.8 shots/match
56.6%Possession5/551.8%
3.8 corners/matchCorners5/54.6 corners/match
1 cards/matchCards5/52 cards/match
12.8 fouls/matchFouls5/512.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.3 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.5 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.5 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.9 shots/matchShots10/10▲16.3 shots/match
3.7 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲4.8 shots/match
58.3%Possession10/1057%
5.3 corners/matchCorners10/104.7 corners/match
1.1 cards/matchCards10/102 cards/match
10.7 fouls/matchFouls10/1012.2 fouls/match

Window

Season

23 / 23 matches
1.43 goals/match▲Goals scored23/231.09 goals/match
0.91 goals/match▲Goals allowed23/231.57 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.2 shots/matchShots23/2313.8 shots/match
4.57 shots/match▲Shots on target23/233.65 shots/match
57.3%Possession23/2353.2%
5.39 corners/matchCorners23/234.65 corners/match
1.35 cards/matchCards23/232.3 cards/match
12.1 fouls/matchFouls23/2313.2 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

11 / 12 matches
1.73 goals/match▲Goals scored11/120.83 goals/match
0.82 goals/match▲Goals allowed11/121.58 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.7 shots/match▲Shots11/1211.4 shots/match
5.09 shots/match▲Shots on target11/122.92 shots/match
57.1%Possession11/1251.4%
6 corners/matchCorners11/123.75 corners/match
1.27 cards/matchCards11/122.33 cards/match
12.5 fouls/matchFouls11/1213.8 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples23 / 23home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 31 Jan 2026, 21:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsNapoliFiorentina
CompetitionSerie A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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