PitchMath
Serie A · 2025Stadio Artemio Franchi

Fiorentina 1–2 Cagliari · Serie A

1–2Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Cagliari won 1–2.

Shots
1510
Shots on target
36
Expected goals
2.151.08
Possession
70%30%

Full time

What the match recorded

Cagliari beat Fiorentina 2–1. Recorded in this match (Fiorentina – Cagliari): shots 15–10, shots on target 3–6, expected goals 2.15–1.08, possession 70%–30%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Fiorentina's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Fiorentina's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.09 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match1.09 goals/match1.09 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Fiorentina have a visible home split

moderate

Fiorentina's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

16.4 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season13.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots16.4 shots/match13.7 shots/match11.8 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Fiorentina have recorded the higher season possession share.

53.5% ●PossessionFiorentina · Cagliari44.5%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 9.0 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricFiorentinaCagliariBaseline
Possession53.5%44.5%48.7%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots15 shots10 shotsFiorentina 15 shots, Cagliari 10 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots6 shotsFiorentina 3 shots, Cagliari 6 shots
  • Expected goals2.15 xG1.08 xGFiorentina 2.15 xG, Cagliari 1.08 xG
  • Possession70%30%Fiorentina 70%, Cagliari 30%
  • Corners8 corners3 cornersFiorentina 8 corners, Cagliari 3 corners
  • Fouls11 fouls17 foulsFiorentina 11 fouls, Cagliari 17 fouls
  • Yellow cards2 cards3 cardsFiorentina 2 cards, Cagliari 3 cards

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Albert Guðmundsson · Fiorentina · 1′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedRolando Mandragora · Fiorentina · 12′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedSebastiano Esposito · Cagliari · 45′ · 0.02 xG · on targetManor Solomon · Fiorentina · 68′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAlbert Guðmundsson · Fiorentina · 73′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedRoberto Piccoli · Fiorentina · 39′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAlbert Guðmundsson · Fiorentina · 66′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedNicolò Fagioli · Fiorentina · 88′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedSebastiano Esposito · Cagliari · 57′ · 0.05 xG · on targetMarco Palestra · Cagliari · 7′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedRobin Gosens · Fiorentina · 33′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedNicolò Fagioli · Fiorentina · 79′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedGennaro Borrelli · Cagliari · 90′ · 0.07 xG · on targetZé Pedro · Cagliari · 7′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedMarco Palestra · Cagliari · 49′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedMichel Adopo · Cagliari · 90′ · 0.08 xG · on targetSemih Kılıçsoy · Cagliari · 31′ · 0.10 xG · goalAlbert Guðmundsson · Fiorentina · 34′ · 0.11 xG · on targetGiovanni Fabbian · Fiorentina · 79′ · 0.11 xG · on targetMarco Brescianini · Fiorentina · 79′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedMarco Palestra · Cagliari · 47′ · 0.16 xG · goalPietro Comuzzo · Fiorentina · 24′ · 0.35 xG · off target or blockedSemih Kılıçsoy · Cagliari · 53′ · 0.35 xG · off target or blockedMarco Brescianini · Fiorentina · 74′ · 0.53 xG · goalMarco Brescianini · Fiorentina · 79′ · 0.59 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Fiorentina: 15 shots, 3 on target, 2.12 xG. Cagliari: 10 shots, 6 on target, 1.05 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Marco Brescianini · Fiorentina · 74′Semih Kılıçsoy · Cagliari · 31′Marco Palestra · Cagliari · 47′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Fiorentina 2.12 xG · Cagliari 1.05 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

4Fiorentina
1Draws
0Cagliari
Cagliari — Fiorentina · Serie A1–1
Cagliari — Fiorentina · Serie A1–2
Fiorentina — Cagliari · Serie A1–0
Cagliari — Fiorentina · Serie A2–3
Fiorentina — Cagliari · Serie A3–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Fiorentina favored in 6 of 11 directional metrics · Cagliari in 2 · 3 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Fiorentina22 matchesCagliari22 matches
1.09 goals/matchGoals scored22/221.09 goals/match
1.55 goals/matchGoals allowed22/22▲ 1.41 goals/match
1.56 xG/match ▲Expected goals22/220.92 xG/match
13.7 shots/match ▲Shots22/2210.1 shots/match
3.59 shots/matchShots on target22/223.45 shots/match
53.5% ●Possession22/2244.5%
4.68 corners/match ●Corners22/223.32 corners/match
2.36 cards/matchCards22/222.41 cards/match
13.2 fouls/matchFouls22/2215.8 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples22 / 22home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 24 Jan 2026, 21:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsFiorentinaCagliari
CompetitionSerie ASerie A 2025/26
Head-to-headFiorentina — Cagliari
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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