PitchMath
Serie A · 2025Sat, 17 Jan 2026, 19:45 UTCFull timeUnipol DomusFull-time recap
1–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricCagliariJuventus
Shots3 shots/match21 shots/match▲
Shots on target1 shots/match5 shots/match▲
Possession22%78%
Corners1 corners/match18 corners/match
Fouls16 fouls/match12 fouls/match
Yellow cards0 cards/match▲1 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Juventus's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Juventus's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Juventus's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Juventus's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.52 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.2 goals/match1.52 goals/match1.07 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Juventus show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Juventus's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

10.1 shots/match▲ShotsCagliari · Juventus16.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricCagliariJuventusBaseline
Shots10.1 shots/match16.4 shots/match12.1 shots/match
Shots against13.5 shots/match9.86 shots/match13 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Juventus have recorded the higher season possession share.

45.1%▲PossessionCagliari · Juventus58.2%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 13.1 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricCagliariJuventusBaseline
Possession45.1%58.2%48.8%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Cagliari
0Draws
1Juventus
Juventus — Cagliari · Serie A2–1

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Cagliari favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · Juventus in 10 · 4 too close

1.05 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 21/21▲1.52 goals/match
1.43 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 21/21▲0.81 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
10.1 shots/matchShotsseason · 21/21▲16.4 shots/match
13.5 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 21/21▲9.86 shots/match
3.33 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 21/21▲5.9 shots/match
5.24 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 21/21▲2.71 shots/match
45.1%Possessionseason · 21/2158.2%
3.33 corners/matchCornersseason · 21/215.52 corners/match
5.67 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 21/21▲4.05 corners/match
2.38 cards/matchCardsseason · 21/21▲1.29 cards/match
15.7 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 21/2112.8 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
19%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 21/21▲38%
67%Scoring frequencyseason · 21/21▲76%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Cagliari27.5
Juventus87.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Cagliari21.7
Juventus92.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Cagliari20.8
Juventus84.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Cagliari12.5
Juventus87.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Cagliari85
Juventus20
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Cagliari12.5
Juventus82.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Cagliari35
Juventus77.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2.2 goals/match
1.4 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲0.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.8 shots/matchShots5/5▲19.2 shots/match
2.8 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲7.6 shots/match
44.8%Possession5/564.6%
3.2 corners/matchCorners5/59 corners/match
1.8 cards/matchCards5/50.4 cards/match
14.2 fouls/matchFouls5/511.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.3 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.8 goals/match
1.6 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲0.7 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.7 shots/matchShots10/10▲15.8 shots/match
3.6 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲6.2 shots/match
46.4%Possession10/1057.9%
3.8 corners/matchCorners10/105.5 corners/match
2.5 cards/matchCards10/101 cards/match
15.7 fouls/matchFouls10/1013.2 fouls/match

Window

Season

21 / 21 matches
1.05 goals/matchGoals scored21/21▲1.52 goals/match
1.43 goals/matchGoals allowed21/21▲0.81 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.1 shots/matchShots21/21▲16.4 shots/match
3.33 shots/matchShots on target21/21▲5.9 shots/match
45.1%Possession21/2158.2%
3.33 corners/matchCorners21/215.52 corners/match
2.38 cards/matchCards21/211.29 cards/match
15.7 fouls/matchFouls21/2112.8 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

10 / 11 matches
1.1 goals/matchGoals scored10/111.09 goals/match
1.3 goals/matchGoals allowed10/11▲0.82 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
9.3 shots/matchShots10/11▲14.1 shots/match
3.5 shots/matchShots on target10/11▲4.64 shots/match
45%Possession10/1158.5%
3.5 corners/matchCorners10/114.91 corners/match
2.3 cards/matchCards10/111.55 cards/match
16.2 fouls/matchFouls10/1113.8 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

5.09 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/15 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples21 / 21home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 17 Jan 2026, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsCagliariJuventus
CompetitionSerie A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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