PitchMath
Serie A · 2025Sat, 17 Jan 2026, 17:00 UTCFull timeStadio Diego Armando MaradonaFull-time recap

Napoli

WWDDD
1–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricNapoliSassuolo
Shots11 shots/match21 shots/match▲
Shots on target4 shots/match4 shots/match
Possession53%47%
Corners5 corners/match4 corners/match
Fouls10 fouls/match11 fouls/match
Yellow cards0 cards/match▲2 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Sassuolo's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Napoli. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Sassuolo's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Sassuolo's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.1 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.4 goals/match1.1 goals/match1.07 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

moderate

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Napoli.

2.98 days▲Rest daysNapoli · Sassuolo7 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricNapoliSassuoloBaseline
Rest days2.98 days7 days—
Matches last 14 days4 matches2 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Sassuolo show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Sassuolo's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

13.1 shots/match▲ShotsNapoli · Sassuolo10.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricNapoliSassuoloBaseline
Shots13.1 shots/match10.6 shots/match12.1 shots/match
Shots against10.8 shots/match14.1 shots/match13 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Napoli
0Draws
0Sassuolo
Sassuolo — Napoli · Serie A0–2

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Napoli favored in 10 of 14 directional metrics · Sassuolo in 0 · 4 too close

1.48 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 21/211.1 goals/match
0.81 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 21/211.33 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
13.1 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 21/2110.6 shots/match
10.8 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 21/2114.1 shots/match
4.67 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 21/213.67 shots/match
2.67 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 21/215.19 shots/match
57.5%Possessionseason · 21/2145.4%
5.62 corners/matchCornersseason · 21/213.52 corners/match
2.67 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 21/214.62 corners/match
1.33 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 21/212.29 cards/match
11.8 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 21/2112.8 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
43%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 21/2119%
76%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 21/2162%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Napoli77.5
Sassuolo37.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Napoli72.5
Sassuolo37.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Napoli80.8
Sassuolo25.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Napoli22.5
Sassuolo32.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Napoli15
Sassuolo52.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Napoli92.5
Sassuolo22.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Napoli62.5
Sassuolo28.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.4 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.4 goals/match
0.8 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.6 shots/match▲Shots5/510.2 shots/match
3.6 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.4 shots/match
61.4%Possession5/544.4%
5 corners/matchCorners5/53.6 corners/match
0.8 cards/matchCards5/51.8 cards/match
10.4 fouls/matchFouls5/512.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.5 goals/match▲Goals scored10/100.9 goals/match
0.7 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.9 shots/match▲Shots10/1011.3 shots/match
4.1 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.8 shots/match
56.1%Possession10/1045.6%
5.4 corners/matchCorners10/103.9 corners/match
1.2 cards/matchCards10/102 cards/match
9.9 fouls/matchFouls10/1012 fouls/match

Window

Season

21 / 21 matches
1.48 goals/match▲Goals scored21/211.1 goals/match
0.81 goals/match▲Goals allowed21/211.33 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.1 shots/match▲Shots21/2110.6 shots/match
4.67 shots/match▲Shots on target21/213.67 shots/match
57.5%Possession21/2145.4%
5.62 corners/matchCorners21/213.52 corners/match
1.33 cards/matchCards21/212.29 cards/match
11.8 fouls/matchFouls21/2112.8 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

10 / 11 matches
1.7 goals/match▲Goals scored10/111.09 goals/match
0.8 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/111.27 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.2 shots/match▲Shots10/1110.2 shots/match
5 shots/match▲Shots on target10/114 shots/match
57.5%Possession10/1143.3%
6.2 corners/matchCorners10/113.36 corners/match
1.3 cards/matchCards10/112.27 cards/match
11.7 fouls/matchFouls10/1113.2 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

2.98 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days
4 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples21 / 21home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 17 Jan 2026, 21:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsNapoliSassuolo
CompetitionSerie A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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