PitchMath
Serie A · 2025Sun, 18 Jan 2026, 14:00 UTCFull timeStadio Renato Dall'AraFull-time recap

Bologna

DLLDW
1–2Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricBolognaFiorentina
Shots18 shots/match▲11 shots/match
Shots on target3 shots/match4 shots/match▲
Possession61%39%
Corners7 corners/match1 corners/match
Fouls14 fouls/match13 fouls/match
Yellow cards3 cards/match0 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Bologna, Fiorentina. A second useful context is: Fiorentina's last-five shots average is above their season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

moderate

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Bologna, Fiorentina.

2.85 days▲Rest daysBologna · Fiorentina7 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricBolognaFiorentinaBaseline
Rest days2.85 days7 days—
Matches last 14 days4 matches3 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Fiorentina's recent record differs from the season

weak

Fiorentina's last-five shots average is above their season average.

16.8 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season13.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots16.8 shots/match13.7 shots/match12 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Bologna have a visible home split

moderate

Bologna's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

16 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season13.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots16 shots/match13.2 shots/match12 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Bologna
1Draws
0Fiorentina
Fiorentina — Bologna · Serie A2–2

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Bologna favored in 9 of 14 directional metrics · Fiorentina in 0 · 5 too close

1.43 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 21/211.1 goals/match
1.14 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 21/211.52 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
13.2 shots/matchShotsseason · 21/2113.7 shots/match
11 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 21/2113.2 shots/match
4.1 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 21/213.62 shots/match
3.95 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 21/214.71 shots/match
55.5%Possessionseason · 21/2152.7%
4.95 corners/matchCornersseason · 21/214.52 corners/match
4.1 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 21/214.81 corners/match
2.19 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 21/212.38 cards/match
14.7 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 21/2113.3 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
29%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 21/2114%
76%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 21/2171%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Bologna67.5
Fiorentina62.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Bologna64.2
Fiorentina51.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Bologna60.8
Fiorentina25.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Bologna42.5
Fiorentina72.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Bologna76.2
Fiorentina66.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Bologna77.5
Fiorentina57.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Bologna70
Fiorentina52.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.2 goals/matchGoals scored5/51.2 goals/match
2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.2 shots/matchShots5/5▲16.8 shots/match
2.8 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲5.6 shots/match
51.6%Possession5/553%
4.2 corners/matchCorners5/54.8 corners/match
2.4 cards/matchCards5/52 cards/match
13.6 fouls/matchFouls5/512.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.2 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.4 goals/match
1.6 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.5 shots/matchShots10/10▲15.9 shots/match
4.2 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲4.5 shots/match
53.8%Possession10/1054.6%
4.4 corners/matchCorners10/104.7 corners/match
2.2 cards/matchCards10/102.3 cards/match
14.3 fouls/matchFouls10/1011.9 fouls/match

Window

Season

21 / 21 matches
1.43 goals/match▲Goals scored21/211.1 goals/match
1.14 goals/match▲Goals allowed21/211.52 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.2 shots/matchShots21/2113.7 shots/match
4.1 shots/match▲Shots on target21/213.62 shots/match
55.5%Possession21/2152.7%
4.95 corners/matchCorners21/214.52 corners/match
2.19 cards/matchCards21/212.38 cards/match
14.7 fouls/matchFouls21/2113.3 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

10 / 11 matches
1.2 goals/match▲Goals scored10/110.82 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/111.55 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
16 shots/match▲Shots10/1111.1 shots/match
4.3 shots/match▲Shots on target10/112.73 shots/match
56.6%Possession10/1151.8%
5.6 corners/matchCorners10/113.73 corners/match
1.7 cards/matchCards10/112.45 cards/match
13.7 fouls/matchFouls10/1113.9 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

2.85 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days
4 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/13 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples21 / 21home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 18 Jan 2026, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsBolognaFiorentina
CompetitionSerie A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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