PitchMath
Serie A · 2025Sun, 18 Jan 2026, 17:00 UTCFull timeStadio Olimpico di TorinoFull-time recap

Torino

WLWLL
0–2Full-time recap

AS Roma

LWLWW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricTorinoAS Roma
Shots8 shots/match14 shots/match▲
Shots on target4 shots/match5 shots/match▲
Possession37%63%
Corners2 corners/match1 corners/match
Fouls13 fouls/match9 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match1 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: AS Roma's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: AS Roma have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

AS Roma's recent record differs from the season

moderate

AS Roma's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.24 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.8 goals/match1.24 goals/match1.07 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

AS Roma have recorded the higher season possession share.

44.5%▲PossessionTorino · AS Roma57.9%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 13.4 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricTorinoAS RomaBaseline
Possession44.5%57.9%48.8%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Torino.

7.89 days▲Rest daysTorino · AS Roma8 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricTorinoAS RomaBaseline
Rest days7.89 days8 days—
Matches last 14 days3 matches2 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

2Torino
0Draws
0AS Roma
AS Roma — Torino · Coppa Italia2–3
AS Roma — Torino · Serie A0–1

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Torino favored in 1 of 14 directional metrics · AS Roma in 9 · 4 too close

1 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 21/21▲1.24 goals/match
1.62 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 21/21▲0.57 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
12.1 shots/matchShotsseason · 21/21▲13.7 shots/match
13.4 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 21/21▲10.2 shots/match
4.48 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 21/21▲4.86 shots/match
4.19 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 21/21▲3.67 shots/match
44.5%Possessionseason · 21/2157.9%
4.19 corners/matchCornersseason · 21/214.9 corners/match
4.1 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 21/21▲3.24 corners/match
1.81 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 21/211.95 cards/match
14.2 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 21/2114.5 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
38%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 21/21▲48%
67%Scoring frequencyseason · 21/21▲71%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Torino22.5
AS Roma82.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Torino48.3
AS Roma73.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Torino27.5
AS Roma87.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Torino77.5
AS Roma37.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Torino48.8
AS Roma60
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Torino42.5
AS Roma67.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Torino57.5
AS Roma76.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.8 goals/match
1.6 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲0.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.6 shots/matchShots5/5▲15.2 shots/match
5.2 shots/matchShots on target5/55.2 shots/match
48.6%Possession5/558.4%
4.4 corners/matchCorners5/53.8 corners/match
2.2 cards/matchCards5/51.2 cards/match
13.4 fouls/matchFouls5/514.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.1 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.4 goals/match
1.8 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲0.7 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.9 shots/matchShots10/1013 shots/match
4.9 shots/match▲Shots on target10/104.5 shots/match
45.9%Possession10/1056.3%
4.2 corners/matchCorners10/103.9 corners/match
1.8 cards/matchCards10/102 cards/match
14.8 fouls/matchFouls10/1014.7 fouls/match

Window

Season

21 / 21 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored21/21▲1.24 goals/match
1.62 goals/matchGoals allowed21/21▲0.57 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.1 shots/matchShots21/21▲13.7 shots/match
4.48 shots/matchShots on target21/21▲4.86 shots/match
44.5%Possession21/2157.9%
4.19 corners/matchCorners21/214.9 corners/match
1.81 cards/matchCards21/211.95 cards/match
14.2 fouls/matchFouls21/2114.5 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

11 / 11 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored11/11▲1.18 goals/match
1.82 goals/matchGoals allowed11/11▲0.64 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.9 shots/matchShots11/1112 shots/match
4.55 shots/matchShots on target11/11▲4.82 shots/match
45.6%Possession11/1156.9%
4.18 corners/matchCorners11/114.45 corners/match
1.55 cards/matchCards11/112.09 cards/match
14 fouls/matchFouls11/1115.5 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.89 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/18 days
3 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples21 / 21home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 18 Jan 2026, 21:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsTorinoAS Roma
CompetitionSerie A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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