PitchMath
Serie A · 2025Sun, 18 Jan 2026, 19:45 UTCFull timeStadio Giuseppe MeazzaFull-time recap
1–0Full-time recap

Lecce

LDLLL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricAC MilanLecce
Shots20 shots/match▲3 shots/match
Shots on target6 shots/match▲0 shots/match
Possession69%31%
Corners10 corners/match2 corners/match
Fouls9 fouls/match11 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match1 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Lecce's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for AC Milan, Lecce. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Lecce's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Lecce's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.62 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.4 goals/match0.62 goals/match1.07 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

moderate

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for AC Milan, Lecce.

3 days▲Rest daysAC Milan · Lecce4 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricAC MilanLecceBaseline
Rest days3 days4 days—
Matches last 14 days3 matches3 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

AC Milan have a visible home split

moderate

AC Milan's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

17 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season14.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots17 shots/match14.1 shots/match12 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

2AC Milan
0Draws
0Lecce
AC Milan — Lecce · Coppa Italia3–0
Lecce — AC Milan · Serie A0–2

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

AC Milan favored in 10 of 14 directional metrics · Lecce in 0 · 4 too close

1.62 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 21/210.62 goals/match
0.76 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 21/211.38 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
14.1 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 21/219.52 shots/match
10.9 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 21/2113.2 shots/match
4.81 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 21/212.38 shots/match
3.38 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 21/214.38 shots/match
51.8%Possessionseason · 21/2142.9%
5 corners/matchCornersseason · 21/214.67 corners/match
4.57 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 21/215.57 corners/match
1.57 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 21/212 cards/match
9.52 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 21/2112.6 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
48%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 21/2129%
95%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 21/2148%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

AC Milan57.5
Lecce12.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

AC Milan84.2
Lecce4.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

AC Milan80.8
Lecce38.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

AC Milan82.5
Lecce12.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

AC Milan11.2
Lecce35
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

AC Milan77.5
Lecce62.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

AC Milan60
Lecce25
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.4 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.4 goals/match
0.6 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
16.6 shots/match▲Shots5/57 shots/match
5 shots/match▲Shots on target5/50.8 shots/match
52.8%Possession5/536.6%
7.6 corners/matchCorners5/52.2 corners/match
1.8 cards/matchCards5/52.6 cards/match
9.6 fouls/matchFouls5/511.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.7 goals/match▲Goals scored10/100.5 goals/match
0.7 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.5 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.7 shots/match▲Shots10/109.1 shots/match
4.8 shots/match▲Shots on target10/101.6 shots/match
52.1%Possession10/1040.4%
5.8 corners/matchCorners10/104 corners/match
1.6 cards/matchCards10/102.2 cards/match
9.1 fouls/matchFouls10/1012.6 fouls/match

Window

Season

21 / 21 matches
1.62 goals/match▲Goals scored21/210.62 goals/match
0.76 goals/match▲Goals allowed21/211.38 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.1 shots/match▲Shots21/219.52 shots/match
4.81 shots/match▲Shots on target21/212.38 shots/match
51.8%Possession21/2142.9%
5 corners/matchCorners21/214.67 corners/match
1.57 cards/matchCards21/212 cards/match
9.52 fouls/matchFouls21/2112.6 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

11 / 10 matches
1.55 goals/match▲Goals scored11/100.6 goals/match
0.82 goals/match▲Goals allowed11/101.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
17 shots/match▲Shots11/108.3 shots/match
5.36 shots/match▲Shots on target11/101.7 shots/match
53.5%Possession11/1038.9%
6.18 corners/matchCorners11/104.4 corners/match
1.82 cards/matchCards11/101.6 cards/match
10.5 fouls/matchFouls11/1012.6 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

3 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/14 days
3 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/13 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples21 / 21home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 18 Jan 2026, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsAC MilanLecce
CompetitionSerie A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

Make a graphic from this match

Creator Studio builds a branded post from this match's recorded data, with its evidence grade and source cutoff carried into the export.

Create a graphic from this match