PitchMath
Serie A · 2025Wed, 14 Jan 2026, 19:45 UTCFull timeStadio Giuseppe MeazzaFull-time recap

Inter

WWWWD
1–0Full-time recap

Lecce

WLDLL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricInterLecce
Shots21 shots/match▲10 shots/match
Shots on target7 shots/match▲1 shots/match
Possession68%32%
Corners11 corners/match3 corners/match
Fouls11 fouls/match14 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match1 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Lecce's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Inter, Lecce. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Lecce's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Lecce's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.65 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.4 goals/match0.65 goals/match1.1 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

moderate

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Inter, Lecce.

3 days▲Rest daysInter · Lecce3.34 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricInterLecceBaseline
Rest days3 days3.34 days—
Matches last 14 days3 matches3 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Lecce show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

Lecce's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

17.8 shots/match▲ShotsInter · Lecce9.85 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricInterLecceBaseline
Shots17.8 shots/match9.85 shots/match12.2 shots/match
Shots against8.55 shots/match12.9 shots/match13 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Inter favored in 10 of 14 directional metrics · Lecce in 0 · 4 too close

2.15 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 20/200.65 goals/match
0.85 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 20/201.4 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
17.8 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 20/209.85 shots/match
8.55 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 20/2012.9 shots/match
5.85 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 20/202.5 shots/match
2.7 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 20/204.3 shots/match
59.4%Possessionseason · 20/2043.5%
7 corners/matchCornersseason · 20/204.8 corners/match
2.75 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 20/205.35 corners/match
1.6 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 20/202.05 cards/match
14.6 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 20/2012.7 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
50%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 20/2030%
95%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 20/2050%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Inter92.5
Lecce17.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Inter95.8
Lecce5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Inter86.7
Lecce41.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Inter97.5
Lecce27.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Inter45
Lecce36.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Inter97.5
Lecce67.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Inter90
Lecce26.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.8 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.4 goals/match
0.6 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
18.8 shots/match▲Shots5/58.6 shots/match
6.6 shots/match▲Shots on target5/51.8 shots/match
58.8%Possession5/538%
6.4 corners/matchCorners5/52.6 corners/match
1.8 cards/matchCards5/52.8 cards/match
15 fouls/matchFouls5/511.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.9 goals/match▲Goals scored10/100.5 goals/match
0.5 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
16.5 shots/match▲Shots10/109.9 shots/match
6 shots/match▲Shots on target10/102.2 shots/match
57.8%Possession10/1043.2%
6.3 corners/matchCorners10/104.5 corners/match
1.8 cards/matchCards10/102.2 cards/match
15.9 fouls/matchFouls10/1012.5 fouls/match

Window

Season

20 / 20 matches
2.15 goals/match▲Goals scored20/200.65 goals/match
0.85 goals/match▲Goals allowed20/201.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
17.8 shots/match▲Shots20/209.85 shots/match
5.85 shots/match▲Shots on target20/202.5 shots/match
59.4%Possession20/2043.5%
7 corners/matchCorners20/204.8 corners/match
1.6 cards/matchCards20/202.05 cards/match
14.6 fouls/matchFouls20/2012.7 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

11 / 9 matches
2.45 goals/match▲Goals scored11/90.67 goals/match
0.73 goals/match▲Goals allowed11/91.44 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
17.9 shots/match▲Shots11/98.89 shots/match
6.64 shots/match▲Shots on target11/91.89 shots/match
59.5%Possession11/939.8%
8 corners/matchCorners11/94.67 corners/match
1.36 cards/matchCards11/91.67 cards/match
14.4 fouls/matchFouls11/912.8 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

3 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/13.34 days
3 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/13 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples20 / 20home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Wed, 14 Jan 2026, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsInterLecce
CompetitionSerie A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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