Serie A · 2025Sun, 11 Jan 2026, 11:30 UTCFull timeStadio Via del MareFull-time recap

Lecce

LWLDL

1–2Full-time recap

Parma

WLWDL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Lecce	Parma
Shots	10 shots/match	12 shots/match▲
Shots on target	1 shots/match	2 shots/match▲
Possession	41%	59%
Corners	3 corners/match	3 corners/match
Fouls	16 fouls/match	17 fouls/match
Yellow cards	3 cards/match	1 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Parma. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Parma.

4.77 days▲Rest daysLecce · Parma3.66 days

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

Metric	Lecce	Parma	Baseline
Rest days	4.77 days	3.66 days	—
Matches last 14 days	2 matches	2 matches	—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Lecce

0Draws

0Parma

4 Oct 2025Parma — Lecce · Serie A0–1

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Lecce favored in 2 of 14 directional metrics · Parma in 6 · 6 too close

0.68 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 19/19▲0.74 goals/match

1.42 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 19/19▲1.16 goals/match

—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—

—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—

9.84 shots/matchShotsseason · 19/19▲11.3 shots/match

12.5 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 19/1914.4 shots/match

2.58 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 19/19▲2.89 shots/match

4.16 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 19/194.21 shots/match

44.1%Possessionseason · 19/1943.2%

4.89 corners/matchCornersseason · 19/193.26 corners/match

5.05 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 19/19▲4.68 corners/match

2.11 cards/matchCardsseason · 19/19▲2 cards/match

12.6 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 19/1910.7 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

32%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 19/1926%

53%Scoring frequencyseason · 19/1953%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Lecce17.5

Parma12.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Lecce5.8

Parma18.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Lecce46.7

Parma35.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Lecce17.5

Parma72.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Lecce37.5

Parma23.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Lecce72.5

Parma7.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Lecce28.8

Parma15.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

0.6 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲0.8 goals/match

1.6 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

10.8 shots/matchShots5/5▲12.8 shots/match

2.2 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲2.8 shots/match

41.8%Possession5/546.4%

4.4 corners/matchCorners5/54 corners/match

3 cards/matchCards5/51.2 cards/match

12 fouls/matchFouls5/510.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

0.6 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1 goals/match

1.3 goals/matchGoals allowed10/101.3 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

10 shots/matchShots10/10▲12.6 shots/match

2.5 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲3 shots/match

43.7%Possession10/1044.2%

4.6 corners/matchCorners10/103.4 corners/match

2.2 cards/matchCards10/101.9 cards/match

13.2 fouls/matchFouls10/1010.1 fouls/match

Window

Season

19 / 19 matches

0.68 goals/matchGoals scored19/19▲0.74 goals/match

1.42 goals/matchGoals allowed19/19▲1.16 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

9.84 shots/matchShots19/19▲11.3 shots/match

2.58 shots/matchShots on target19/19▲2.89 shots/match

44.1%Possession19/1943.2%

4.89 corners/matchCorners19/193.26 corners/match

2.11 cards/matchCards19/192 cards/match

12.6 fouls/matchFouls19/1910.7 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

11 / 9 matches

0.64 goals/matchGoals scored11/9▲0.78 goals/match

1.36 goals/matchGoals allowed11/9▲1 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

10.6 shots/matchShots11/9▲11.2 shots/match

3 shots/matchShots on target11/9▲3.44 shots/match

46.5%Possession11/943.4%

4.91 corners/matchCorners11/93.33 corners/match

2.36 cards/matchCards11/92.22 cards/match

12.5 fouls/matchFouls11/910.9 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

4.77 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/13.66 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples19 / 19home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 11 Jan 2026, 15:30 UTC · analysis-v4

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