PitchMath
Serie A · 2025Sun, 11 Jan 2026, 17:00 UTCFull timeStadio Marcantonio BentegodiFull-time recap
0–1Full-time recap

Lazio

WDDLD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricHellas VeronaLazio
Shots10 shots/match11 shots/match▲
Shots on target2 shots/match2 shots/match
Possession36%64%
Corners2 corners/match1 corners/match
Fouls12 fouls/match7 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match1 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Hellas Verona, Lazio. A second useful context is: Lazio's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Hellas Verona, Lazio.

3.98 days▲Rest daysHellas Verona · Lazio3.89 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricHellas VeronaLazioBaseline
Rest days3.98 days3.89 days—
Matches last 14 days2 matches2 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Lazio's recent record differs from the season

weak

Lazio's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.05 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match1.05 goals/match1.1 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Lazio have recorded the higher season possession share.

39.4%▲PossessionHellas Verona · Lazio51%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 11.6 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricHellas VeronaLazioBaseline
Possession39.4%51%48.8%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Hellas Verona
0Draws
1Lazio
Lazio — Hellas Verona · Serie A4–0

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Hellas Verona favored in 1 of 14 directional metrics · Lazio in 4 · 9 too close

0.79 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 19/20▲1.05 goals/match
1.63 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 19/20▲0.8 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
11.6 shots/matchShotsseason · 19/2011.3 shots/match
13.4 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 19/2013.1 shots/match
4.26 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 19/204.05 shots/match
4.21 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 19/204.25 shots/match
39.4%Possessionseason · 19/2051%
3.58 corners/matchCornersseason · 19/203.8 corners/match
4.68 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 19/20▲3.75 corners/match
2.53 cards/matchCardsseason · 19/202.45 cards/match
16.9 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 19/2010.9 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
16%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 19/20▲50%
53%Scoring frequencyseason · 19/2055%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Hellas Verona2.5
Lazio52.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Hellas Verona39.2
Lazio37.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Hellas Verona23.3
Lazio52.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Hellas Verona92.5
Lazio7.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Hellas Verona97.5
Lazio47.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Hellas Verona27.5
Lazio37.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Hellas Verona56.2
Lazio32.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
0.8 goals/matchGoals scored5/50.8 goals/match
2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10 shots/matchShots5/5▲11 shots/match
2.6 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲2.8 shots/match
39.4%Possession5/551.8%
2.8 corners/matchCorners5/54 corners/match
2.2 cards/matchCards5/53.8 cards/match
15.4 fouls/matchFouls5/511 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1 goals/match▲Goals scored10/100.8 goals/match
1.7 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲0.9 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
9.8 shots/matchShots10/10▲12.2 shots/match
3.1 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲4.6 shots/match
40%Possession10/1052.6%
3.2 corners/matchCorners10/104.4 corners/match
2.6 cards/matchCards10/103.2 cards/match
16.8 fouls/matchFouls10/1010.7 fouls/match

Window

Season

19 / 20 matches
0.79 goals/matchGoals scored19/20▲1.05 goals/match
1.63 goals/matchGoals allowed19/20▲0.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.6 shots/matchShots19/2011.3 shots/match
4.26 shots/match▲Shots on target19/204.05 shots/match
39.4%Possession19/2051%
3.58 corners/matchCorners19/203.8 corners/match
2.53 cards/matchCards19/202.45 cards/match
16.9 fouls/matchFouls19/2010.9 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

9 / 10 matches
0.89 goals/match▲Goals scored9/100.6 goals/match
1.44 goals/matchGoals allowed9/10▲0.7 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12 shots/match▲Shots9/109.9 shots/match
4.89 shots/match▲Shots on target9/103.4 shots/match
41.7%Possession9/1050.5%
4.56 corners/matchCorners9/102.5 corners/match
2.22 cards/matchCards9/102.2 cards/match
16.1 fouls/matchFouls9/1010.8 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

3.98 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/13.89 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples19 / 20home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 11 Jan 2026, 21:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsHellas VeronaLazio
CompetitionSerie A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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